The man behind the numbers
Polling as art. Most controversial is Zogby's weighting of poll results not only by the customary demographic factors but also by party identification, to get what he considers the right percentages of Republicans and Democrats. Zogby says he also adjusts results according to his feel for what is happening on the ground. Preposterous, say most pollsters. Justified, say Zogby fans. "There's artwork involved," says Zogby. "I'm not a statistician, I'm a historian. I'm used to using soft methods." On the day before the New Hampshire primary, Zogby reported that John Kerry was leading Howard Dean by just 31 to 28 percent--much closer than in other tracking polls. To get that result he included for the first time those leaning toward a candidate. Then on primary day, he announced that Kerry's lead in the two-day tracking had risen to 37 to 24 percent--a big shift, reflecting undecideds who went for Kerry.
But that one day's tracking was based on a small sampling of only about 350 respondents. Sneered Slate.com's Mickey Kaus: "Here is that final Zogby New Hampshire poll describing a huge Kerry miracle surge, undetected by others, that just happens to bring Zogby into line with other polls."
Zogby admits mistakes. "I blew some states," especially the 2002 Illinois gubernatorial and Colorado Senate races. But, he brags, "There were a number of states I got right, and no one else did." He knows that other pollsters look askance at his methods. But it's also true that everyone in the political world and many in business are eager to see his latest results.
advertisement
