Money Show attendees lick their wounds but keep the faith
By Tim Smart
ORLANDO--What a difference a bear market makes. In recent years, attendees at the winter Money Show investment fest flocked to standing-room-only workshops, where breathless mutual-fund newsletter editors and managers touted their latest stock picks. Crowds of mostly elderly investors gathered around Gruntal & Co. chief strategist Joe Battipaglia much like teeny-boppers at an 'N Sync concert. But this time, with asset preservation replacing asset accumulation as the focus of disillusioned investors, it was the likes of Bond Bible author Marilyn Cohen who packed them in at the Gaylord Palms resort last month.
advertisement
"In 1998 and 1999, I could not lasso people out of the halls to come in and learn about bonds," Cohen told the group, a mix of retirees, small-business owners, stay-at-home moms, and full-time traders. "This is not a baby boomer audience," she says. "If you have a fixed-income component to your portfolio, it will save your bacon when the stock market does its swan dive." Cohen recommends corporate bonds and tax-free municipals.
Reality check. Sound advice, surely. But it's counsel that many of those attending the show clearly did not follow during the bull run of the 1990s, when the event had the feel of a revival meeting. This year, the crowd--which offers a glimpse of the current frame of mind of the small investor--commiserated over their mistakes, politely criticizing the same market gurus they had once listened to with unabashed adoration.
If investors were looking for simple answers, they came away empty-handed. While there was a general bullish tilt, most experts counseled caution, with few willing to forecast another rip-roaring market. "We're hearing that this is the bottom, but I'm not running out and buying anything," says Annie Harrell, 70, of St. Petersburg, Fla., a longtime attendee. She parted ways with her Tyco shares a couple of weeks ago after the company became embroiled in the post-Enron accounting cloud. "I don't have the time" to wait for a rebound in stocks, Harrell says, aiming now for a portfolio of 30 percent stocks, 70 percent fixed income.
Against a backdrop of steadily improving economic news, the chastened investors spent a lot of time trying to buck one another up and maintain their collective faith in the market. "I don't think we're at the point of extreme pessimism, but there is a larger minority of people who are skeptical," says Martin Weiss, founder of Weiss Group, an insurance-rating service and money-management firm in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. Weiss, who warned that America's companies were playing games with their accounting three years ago, busily autographed copies of his book, The Ultimate Safe Money Guide.
One who was buying Weiss's bearish message was Basile Daskalakis, 52, of Enid, Okla. The small-business owner is using options to bet against stocks and believes the worst is yet to come. "It has to go a lot more down before it rebounds," he says.
Many of the attendees are avid readers of the newsletters whose editors populate the panels at the show. They tend to gravitate to those with whom they agree, despite the results. "I've been dabbling at it for a long period of time," says show veteran Orline Blackford, 70, of Las Vegas, "and not doing very good at it. Whatever was recommended, I'd go ahead and buy."
Slow and steady. Some investors wondered why those they had trusted had let them down, though such sentiment didn't hurt attendance. Charles Githler, the show's founder, notes that the attendance of about 8,500 was roughly the same as last year (though off the peak of 10,000 in 2000). Less evident this year were exhibit booths displaying software programs for day traders and investment seminars targeting wannabe millionaires. "What we're left with now is the more core or solid long-term investor," Githler says.
Ironically, the sober mood of the attendees might itself be a market buy signal. Among others: longtime bear James Stack of InvesTech Research--a lonely voice of caution in the wilderness lo these many years--arguing the case for a new bull market. And there was newsletter observer Mark Hulbert taking comfort in the extreme bearishness of his colleagues, which he views as a contrarian positive sign. "This is a different picture than we've seen at previous Money Shows," Hulbert says. "There's a lot more worry in the air--but the market likes to climb a wall of worry."