2010 Election

Americans will vote on Nov. 2 in the congressional midterm elections. At stake is Democratic control of Congress, which President Obama’s falling approval ratings and the stumbling economy have endangered. Since 1946, according to Gallup, presidents whose approval rating was under 50 percent saw their party lose an average of 36 House seats during midterm elections. Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to claim the speaker’s gavel, and Obama’s rating has been stuck in the 40s since the spring. Republicans’ chances of taking over the Senate are slimmer—they need to gain a net of 10 seats—though they are still expected to make gains. For example the seats currently held by retiring Democratic Sens. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, Ted Kaufman of Delaware, and Evan Bayh of Indiana are all seen as likely to flip to the GOP. Another half dozen seats held by retiring Senators—Democrat Roland Burris of Illinois, and Republicans George LeMieux of Florida, Jim Bunning of Kentucky, Kit Bond of Missouri, Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, and George Voinovich of Ohio—are also seen as toss-up races, along with the seat currently held by Pennsylvania Democrat Arlen Specter, who lost his primary race. Incumbent Democrats Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Barbara Boxer of California, Michael Bennet of Colorado, Harry Reid of Nevada, Patty Murray of Washington, and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin are also in extremely competitive races.

The economy, jobs, government spending, taxes, and the healthcare reform law are all hot issues this year. Other issues have appeared suddenly, including the conflicts over the so-called “ground zero mosque” and Arizona’s immigration law. Republicans are focusing on what they see as Obama’s failure to repair the economy or rein in out-of-control government spending. Democrats paint Republicans as fear-mongering radicals with extreme views. They argue that the GOP has been taken over by the Tea Party and its favorites, like former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Kentucky Senate candidate Rand Paul, Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle, and Colorado Senate candidate Ken Buck. Candidates in both parties are running “Washington is broken” campaigns, and 2010 has proved to be tough for incumbents. Two senators and four representatives have lost their seats in primary races. The latest incumbent to bite the dust was seven-term Democratic Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick of Michigan on August 4, though Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski was behind in her primary race pending absentee ballots being counted.