Is the Polar Bear Threatened?

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Polar Bear Facts

The Facts:

Of the 20 distinct subpopulations of polar bears, one or possible two are declining in Baffin Bay; more than half are known to be stable; and 2 subpopulations are actually increasing around the Beaufort Sea. Global polar bear populations have increased dramatically over the past several decades, from about 5000 in the 60’s to 25000 today. The 2 populations in decline come from areas where it has actually been getting colder over the past fifty years, whereas the two increasing populations reside in areas where it is getting warmer. The best studied polar bear population lives on the western coast of Hudson Bay. That its population has declined 17 percent, from 1200 in 1987 to 950 in 2004 has gotten much press. Not mentioned in the press, however, is that since 1981 the population has soared from just 500, thus eradicating any claim of a decline. Moreover, nowhere in the news coverage is it mentioned that 300 to 500 bears are shot each year, with 49 shot on average on the west coast of Hudson Bay. Even if we take the story of decline at face value, it means we have lost about 15 bears to global warming each year, whereas we have lost 49 each year to hunting.

The polar bear story teaches us 3 things. First, we hear vastly exaggerated and emotional claims that are simply not supported by data. Second, polar bears are not the only story. While we hear only about the troubled species, it is also a fact the many species will do better with climate change. In general, the Artic Climate Impact Assessment { http://www.acia.uaf.edu/ } projects that the Arctic will experience increasing species richness and higher ecosystem productivity. It will have less polar desert and more forest. The assessment actually finds that higher temperatures mean more nesting birds and more butterflies. This does not make up for the polar bears but it is important that we hear both sides of the story. The 3rd point is that our hysteria makes us focus on the wrong solutions. We are being told that the plight of the polar bear shows “the need for stricter curbs on greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming.” Even of we accept the flawed idea of using the 1987 population of polar bears around Hudson Bay as a baseline, so that we lose 15 bears each year, what can we do? If we try helping them by cutting greenhouse gases, in theory we can at the very best avoid 15 bears dying. In actuality the number is about 0.06 bear deaths avoided. But 49 bears from the same population are being shot each year, and this we can easily do something about. Therefore, if we really want a stable population of polar bears, dealing first with the 49 shot ones might be a much better strategy. Yet it is not the one we hear about. In the climate debate we mostly Don’t hear the proposals that will do the most good but only the ones that involve cutting green house gases.

Jamie of AK @ Sep 10, 2008 16:30:49 PM

disappearing sea ice

Scientists taking core samples have found evidence of tropical vegetation below the ice. Perhaps this ice is not supposed to be permanent. Perhaps the polar bear is supposed to become extinct just like the dinosaurs. Perhaps we should stop trying to manipulate nature because we are not knowledgeable enough to understand why these things happen. That does not mean that we should not strive to be kind to the environment and use materials wisely and economically but we need to be reasonable in our actions. I firmly believe that the people who push the global warming alarm buttons have found a good way to make more money and should be taken with a grain of salt.

jean alexander of FL @ Aug 31, 2008 19:46:00 PM

More Scientific misinformation

First let me say I am a environmentalist, in so far as that I intensly enjoy the natural environment; I am an elite cyclist, I ski, I kayak, I swim and Surf in the oceans. In addition to being an environmentalist, I am The abuse of statistics, and the Misinformation pepetuated by the far left and the people who have a very specific economic motive to move the reckless environmental movement foward is most disturbing to me. I ask that anyone who believes that Man is causing adverse global climate change (by specific acts) to look at REAL science and statistics.

of @ May 22, 2008 11:14:59 AM

Polar bears ARE threatened!!!

Score one for the good citizens of planet earth.

http://www.doi.gov/news/08_News_Releases/080514a.html

Dan of LA @ May 14, 2008 15:21:53 PM

Polar Bears Endangered?

It's hard to get too excited about the supposed imminent demise of the polar bear when its numbers have increased 400% in the last 40 years. If we want to put an animal on the endaged species list, shouldn't it be one whose numbers are actually going down?

Duscany of CA @ May 01, 2008 03:15:26 AM

It's hard to get too excited about the supposed imminent demise of the polar bear when its numbers have increased 400% in the last 40 years. If we want to put an animal on the endaged species list, shouldn't it be one whose numbers are actually going down?

Duscany of CA @ May 01, 2008 03:14:52 AM

Neat "blawg," dawg

Keith, thanks for drawing my attention to your blog. I just checked out that recent post of yours.

Ben Harder of DC @ Apr 30, 2008 23:06:19 PM

ESA as a policy proxy

All the fuss over the Polar bear listing underscores the absence of other regulatory measures to deal with the emerging problem of climate change. See my April 29 and March 2 entries on www.esablawg.com, the law blog discussing the Endangered Species Act.

Keith Rizzardi of FL @ Apr 30, 2008 22:31:08 PM

Historic high populations

It is tough to call them endangered. The biggest problem with this issue is that villages need the right to shoot nuisance bears. Relocation does not work. THey are great navigators, and one was recently shot in Fort Yukon, 250 miles South of where they are normally found. They go where they find food, and will return time and time again. With such an explosion in their populations, they certainly are not endangered. It is the people who are at risk. Alaskans really don't need outsiders to tell them how to manage their wildlife.

of AK @ Apr 30, 2008 22:29:11 PM

polar bears

i think that it would be so sad to have another species gointothe endangered catagory.if there something that we can do to prevent the polar bear to not become endangered??my answer is yes,because all we have to do is : carpool more often,have factories such as mills,ie. lumber mills strain more of the chemicals out so it doesn't effect the polar bears enviroment.

kristina ulmer of @ Apr 30, 2008 21:34:13 PM

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Thinking Harder

This blog is the public workshop of U.S. News writer and editor Ben Harder. In articles published in the magazine, he has covered a range of sciences, including medicine, human behavior, prehistory, and evolution. Here, he can explore those and other scientific fields more fully and more informally than is possible in print. He'll share whatever seems noteworthy or potentially useful, and he invites readers to do the same.

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On Feb. 24, 2008, Ben discussed the link between artificial light and cancer on WTOP radio. Listen to the interview at WTOP News. He again talked about light pollution on WTOP on March 22, exploring its environmental effects.

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