Shrinking Snow and Ice Cover Intensify Global Warming

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If we eventually reach a point 20 or 30 years from now, where our scientists and politicians are trying to tell us "Sorry, but global warming is happening much faster than we anticipated, and now we are facing global calamity as a result because we weren't able to act in time, but it is not our fault because we simply didn't know enough to make accurate predictions", DO NOT LISTEN TO THEM, BECAUSE THEY WILL BE LYING THROUGH THEIR TEETH !!! Because we can ALWAYS adjust our climate models in an ongoing way by introducing unknown factors into the equations which govern our models, by using real time climate measurements along the way to generate these unknowns, and thereby produce reasonably accurate climate models without ever actually knowing the reason for these inaccuracies in the first place. All we really have to know is how much these climate models are off by using real time measurements, in order to make the necessary adjustments to our models which can and should yield increasingly accurate climate predictions every step of the way. - Rick Carter

Rick Carter of MD 8:35AM July 17, 2011

Fixing our models is a very easy thing to do, even if we don't know why they are off in their predictions in the first place, and it is something which should endeavor to do on a continuous basis. We simply need to determine how much they are off with some reasonable degree of certainty, and then introduce unknown factors into these equations which govern our models until we can finally determine the basis for these inaccuracies. Unknowns should never be allowed to hold us up when it comes to making accurate predictions regarding future threat of global warming, because we can always introduce unknown factors into these equations which in turn compensate for any inaccuracies, once we have a reasonable estimate about the degree of these inaccuracies based upon ongoing measurements of our climate.

Rick Carter of MD 8:06AM July 17, 2011

Here you can see the alarming decrease in snow cover: h/t Steve
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=namgnld&ui_season=1

Michael D Smith of IL 11:13AM February 05, 2011

Some of the posts (above) illustrate why science education matters; it matters when citizens lack the ability to read an article and condense from it the salient points while putting the information into a larger decision-making context. Let's summarize:
1) Scientific models used a numerical factor to account for accelerated global warming that results when snow and ice melt, exposing larger tracts of bare ground.
2) In some models the numerical factor was too small, so those models *under* estimated the increase in global warming that will happen as snow/ice melts and CO2 continues to pour into the atmosphere.
3) Points 1 and 2 mean that global warming will increase at a *faster* rate than predicted by those earlier models.
The salient point here is that global warming is a *bigger* problem than previously thought -- a point that clearly doesn't argue for the conclusion that global warming doesn't exist or isn't important.
As for the snide remarks about models...scientists have models that tell us how to design cars, rockets, ships, and buildings. We have models that tell us how to design dams, causeways, canals, and flood gates. We have models that help us predict the flow of fluids in cooling vents, car radiators, and irrigation weirs. And we have models that help us predict the heating effect from adding millions of tons of CO2 to the atmosphere. Those that critize the use of models as predictors simply don't understand what science and engineering are about.
And that's the crux of the problem -- we have a largely illiterate population that doesn't understand how science works, and we have an *enormous* industry-funded effort to misrepresent the science of global warming. The misinformation campaign is funded by the very industries that are creating the problem. Big oil, coal, and gas companies are today what the cigarette companies were 30 years ago -- well financed special interest groups with a financial incentive to lie about and misrepresent the science. All while doing irreparable harm to others.

Duwayne Anderson of OR 1:57PM January 21, 2011

Passing off model calculations as truth has given us predictions of imminent climate doomsday if we don't stop burning those fossil fuels immediately. It all started with James Hansen in 1988 when he testified to the Senate that global warming had arrived and that we were responsible because of carbon dioxide we were putting into the air. He showed three "scenarios" his climate model had produced: A, B, and C. Scenario A was "business as usual," when nothing was done to control emissions. Scenario B was "moderate" addition of CO2 to atmosphere and C was just irrelevant. He ran the simulations out to the year 2019 and frightened people with the projected warming to come. Later checks showed that his "business as usual" projection overestimated warming by three hundred percent. He protested that they should have looked at his B scenario, moderate CO2 addition, which he said followed observed temperatures closely until about 2004. It turned out that after that this scenario parted company with observations and went up into the wild blue yonder. But he did not mention how he got the earlier part of the scenario to follow observations. What he actually did for this simulation was to freeze carbon dioxide level at its 1988 value and calculate the rest of the curve with that stationary input. That of course bears no relation whatsoever to the rising CO2 values of the real world. His calculations were done on an IBM mainframe but after Uncle Sam was induced to spend billions on climate research because of such scare stories the modelers were given supercomputers to do much more extensive modeling. There are at least two dozen such models active today that IPCC uses for climate predictions but I am sorry to report that that they are no better than Hansen's original work. Problem is that in order to get the high predicted temperatures carbon dioxide alone is not enough so they juice up their models by using positive water vapor feedback to jack up their results. That happens to be entirely wrong because Ferenc Miskolczi has shown that water vapor feedback effect on global temperature is strongly negative, not positive as these IPCC modelers assume. What could the output of such a computer be if the input is wrong? In computer lingo it is called GIGO - Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Arno Arrak of NY 12:48PM January 21, 2011

Antarctic ice is thickening and expanding. Southern Ocean temps are cooling. The alternating of Northern and Southern Hemisphere temps has been going on for thousands of years.
Currently the Earth is in an "interglacial period". The return of the ice sheets down to the 40th parallel would be a real civilization killer. I'm going outside now and burn some more old tires - need to do my part to postpone the next Ice Age.

R.L. Schaefer of CA 12:04PM January 21, 2011

Am I wrong or did you miss the point? Climate change is real this article just indicates the models are underestimating how quickly the Earth will warm. U can't be telling your children it is on them for it is on all of us. Although rapid climate change has been a raiding regular phenomena in past geologist time, generally it was a major non-human created event such as intense volcanic activity or meteorites striking the earth. This time man has let the climate gene out of the bottle.
Let's hope for our childrens sake we can put the stopper back in. I fear when the Artic Tundra thaws and release it load of methane gas we will really understand about the albedo feedback effect, let not even contemplate the release of the deep-sea methane hydrates!

Dave of TX 10:44PM January 20, 2011

This plea to environmentalism is making it’s way around the Net.
“Continued belief in Climate Change’s “death threat of unstoppable warming” is dividing environmentalism, if not all of progressivism too. I can’t look my kids in the eyes anymore and tell them they won’t have kids of their own if they don’t’ start turning the lights off more often and help to SAVE THE PLANET! Issuing CO2 death warrants to our children means we have become the neocons of fear mongering with our Iraq War of lies called Climate Change. Call it a mistake if you like but it isn’t sustainable in voter consensus anymore. We all know it was just an exaggeration that got away on us. I know, it’s hard to let it go. But we have to face reality and know that support is lost and cant’ possibly come back because that would have people hanging onto THE END OF THE WORLD for another 25 years? Let’s remove the CO2 and start anew. Pollution is real. We get it now. Let’s all grow some and face the future challenges of over population, pollution, energy and waste with courage, and not lead environmentalism down the wrong road any further. DROP THE CO2 AND NOTHING CHANGES, except the fear. Let’s stop the fear and stop the lies. System Change, not Climate Change. Signed, Former Believer.”

mememine69 6:21PM January 20, 2011