Subtle connections among the 11-year-solar cycle, the stratosphere and the tropical Pacific Ocean work in sync to generate periodic weather patterns that affect much of the globe, according to research results appearing this week in the journal Science.
The findings will help scientists get an edge on predicting the intensity of certain climate phenomena, such as the Indian monsoon and tropical Pacific rainfall, years in advance.
"It's been long known that weather patterns are well-correlated to very small variations in total solar energy reaching our planet during 11-year solar cycles," says Jay Fein, program director in the National Science Foundation (NSF)'s Division of Atmospheric Sciences, which funded the research. "What's been an equally long mystery, however, is how they are physically connected. This remarkable study is beginning to unravel that mystery."
An international team of authors led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., used more than a century of weather observations and three powerful computer models to tackle one of the more difficult questions in meteorology: if the total energy that reaches Earth from the Sun varies by only 0.1 percent across the approximately 11-year solar cycle, how can it drive major changes in weather patterns on Earth?
The answer, according to the study, has to do with the Sun's impact on two seemingly unrelated regions.
Chemicals in the stratosphere and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean respond during solar maximum in a way that amplifies the Sun's influence on some aspects of air movement.
This can intensify winds and rainfall, change sea surface temperatures and cloud cover over certain tropical and subtropical regions, and ultimately influence global weather.
"The Sun, the stratosphere, and the oceans are connected in ways that can influence events such as winter rainfall in North America," says NCAR scientist Gerald Meehl, the lead author of the paper. "Understanding the role of the solar cycle can provide added insight as scientists work over the next decade or two toward predicting regional weather patterns."
The results builds on recent papers by Meehl and colleagues exploring the link between the peaks in the solar cycle and events on Earth that resemble aspects of La Niña events, but are distinct from those larger patterns associated with changes in pressure and known as the Southern Oscillation.
The connection between peaks in solar energy and cooler water in the equatorial Pacific was first discovered by Harry Van Loon of NCAR and Colorado Research Associates, a co-author of the paper.
The contribution by Meehl and his colleagues is to document that two mechanisms that had been previously theorized in fact work together to amplify the response in the tropical Pacific.
The team first confirmed a theory that the slight increase in solar energy during the peak production of sunspots is absorbed by stratospheric ozone.
The energy warms the air in the stratosphere over the tropics where the sunlight is most intense, while also stimulating the production of additional ozone there that absorbs even more solar energy.
Since the stratosphere warms unevenly, with the most pronounced warming occurring at lower latitudes, stratospheric winds are altered and, through a chain of interconnected processes, end up strengthening tropical storms and precipitation.
At the same time, the increased sunlight at solar maximum causes a slight warming of ocean surface waters, especially across the subtropical Pacific, where Sun-blocking clouds are normally scarce.
That small amount of extra heat leads to more evaporation, producing additional water vapor. In turn, the moisture is carried by trade winds to the normally rainy areas of the western tropical Pacific, fueling heavier rains and reinforcing the effects of the stratospheric mechanism.
The top-down influence of the stratosphere and the bottom-up influence of the ocean work together to intensify this loop and strengthen the trade winds.