Rapid Climate Change Forces Scientists to Evaluate Extreme Conservation Strategies

To this end, the researchers' tool is designed to help expose managed relocation's risks, trade-offs and costs--considerations that are often absent from decision-making on natural resources.  Specifically, it provides stakeholders with a system for individually scoring a proposed relocation based on multi-disciplinary criteria. These multi-disciplinary criteria include the probability of the success of a proposed relocation, its potential for harming receiving ecosystems, its costs, its potential for triggering violations of the Endangered Species Act, and the social and cultural importance of impacted species.

Comparisons of stakeholders' scores should help stakeholders identify the sources of their disagreements so that they may be resolved.  However, the tool does not, by itself produce management recommendations.

"The tool takes advantage of the fact that, although science can't tell us exactly what will happen in the future, it can tell us how likely a favorable result is--useful information for decision-makers," says NSF Program Director Nancy Huntly.

Not Just Applicable to Endangered Species

In addition to addressing managed relocations of endangered species, the researchers' tool may also address:

• Managed relocations of species that are not endangered. For example, the working group's PNAS paper applies the tool to the debate over whether certain species of North American hardwood trees should be planted beyond their northern range boundaries into coniferous forests. This application suggests that such relocations may be supported by commercial foresters who value their high potential for producing economic returns as well as their high feasibility and low risk of harming recipient ecosystems. By contrast, conservationists who value the natural heritage of recipient ecosystems may perceive fewer benefits and greater risks.
• Controversial climate-related adaptation strategies besides managed relocation that are currently being considered by scientists.

View a video interview (clip1, clip2, clip3, clip4) with Jessica Hellmann of the University of Notre Dame.