Earthquake Preparedness: Let's Get Ready to Rumble

With Kraken, however, refined resolution is not only possible, it’s forthcoming. Specifically, SCEC would like the next round of simulations to be in the neighborhood of 2 Hz, double the current resolution. Eventually, said Maechling, the team has its sights on the 10-Hz scale, but that would require a dramatic increase in both software efficiency and computing power. Given the rate at which supercomputers are accelerating, it might not be that far off. In fact, a whole new era of seismic science may soon be possible.

With the help of these newly enhanced simulations and other computational tools, SCEC would like to begin exploring the predictive side of seismology, eventually producing earthquake forecasts. However, unlike climate and weather, seismology has never readily lent itself to prediction. In fact, said Maechling, the science (or art) of predicting earthquakes is estimated by some scientists to be 100 years behind weather prediction. SCEC aims to close the gap. “We want to transform seismology into a more predictive science,” said Maechling, “like that of climate and weather.”

The difficulties in predicting seismic events are numerous. For instance, earthquakes occur on very short timescales, making long-term observation impossible. Furthermore, because seismologists, geologists, and other researchers don’t know when they will occur, they cannot make preparations to study them as meteorologists do a thunderstorm.

Also, the initial conditions behind these phrenetic phenomena are harder to observe than, say, lightning. After all, except for possible displacements of the ground surface, faults are hidden deep in the geological underground and beyond the bounds of traditional observation, which is precisely why simulation is so useful. However, future earthquake forecasts will probably never be as targeted as current weather forecasts, said Maechling, citing a common misconception. For instance, in the foreseeable future seismologists will not be able to tell us if an earthquake will occur tomorrow. Instead, earthquake forecasts will be more like current climate models, revealing a range of probability over longer time spans, such as 50 years.

“As the science gets better,” said Maechling, “the time periods will get shorter.” Depending on the progression of knowledge and the increased power of supercomputers, current 50-year forecasts could eventually be reduced to annual predictions, better preparing everyone for the Big One—and even smaller ones.

For the time being, however, SCEC will continue to refine its ground-motion and fault-rupture models. “Our investigation into ground motion and the physics of fault rupture is not done,” said Maechling.

—By Gregory Scott Jones/NICS.