Swine Flu-Digital Detectives

Companies mine Web clues for signs of pandemics

Posted: April 29, 2009

In this April 27, 2009, file photo, Veractect's Verasight Global, an interface that identifies and tracks emerging civil unrest events around the world, is shown on a monitor at the company's Kirkland, Wash. offices as it tracks swine flu-related events.
Veratech Inc. CEO Robert Hart, left, and chief scientist Jim Wilson pose in front of a screen showing the areas where the tracking company marked swine flu hotspots which have been reported at their office in Kirkland, Wash., Monday, April 27, 2009. Veratect Inc., a two-year-old company with fewer than 50 employees, uses computers and humans to monitor tens of thousands of vetted sources for hints of disease outbreaks and civil unrest.

Specialists in disease outbreaks acknowledge that unscientific, community-level information can be valuable. For example, when a parasite slipped through Milwaukee's water treatment system in 1993, the first sign of trouble came in reports to city health officials that drugstores were selling out of diarrhea medicines.

But some public health experts say it's not possible to draw firm conclusions from online tools or reports from companies like Veratect.

"They are considered interesting, unofficial, instructive, imaginative, and then I would go back and emphasize unofficial," said Dr. William Schaffner, a public health expert at Vanderbilt University and a spokesman for the Infectious Disease Society of America.

Dr. Scott Dowell, who heads the CDC's international swine flu team, said the agency looks at reports from Veratect and other companies in the course of monitoring outbreaks around the world. Veratect is often useful, Dowell said, and can be very sensitive to emerging threats.

"It also generates a lot of noise," he said.

Others add that it's risky to act on early signals. Without positive lab tests, reports of new cases are unreliable, in part because mystery illnesses prompt uninfected people to think they have the symptoms.

Even now, when some of Veratect's findings appear to be bearing fruit, the focus on La Gloria as a disease epicenter may turn out to be off-base.

Dr. Philip Brachman, an Emory University professor who for years led the CDC's Epidemic Intelligence Service, said the scapegoating of the pig farm Veratect detected might stem from an existing local grudge.

"The town probably doesn't like the pig farm," Brachman said, "because of the odor."

___

AP Medical Writers Mike Stobbe in Atlanta and Marilynn Marchione in Chicago contributed to this report.

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