Drop in Major River Levels May Threaten Future Water and Food Supplies

The Colorado River is among rivers worldwide that have been affected by a warming Earth.

Rivers in some of the world's most-populous regions are losing water and could threaten future supplies of food and water, according to a comprehensive global study. Led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., the research suggests the reduced flows in many cases are associated with climate change.

The scientists examined stream flows from 1948 to 2004 and found significant changes in about one-third of the world's largest rivers. Rivers with decreased flow outnumbered those with increased flow by more than 2 to 1.

"Reduced runoff is increasing the pressure on freshwater resources in much of the world, especially with more demand for water as population increases," says NCAR scientist Aiguo Dai, the lead author of a journal paper on the subject. "Freshwater being a vital resource, the downward trends are a great concern."
Dai and his co-authors analyzed the flows of 925 of the planet's largest rivers, combining actual measurements with computer-based stream-flow models to fill in data gaps. The rivers in the study drain water from every major landmass except Antarctica and Greenland and account for 73 percent of the world's stream flow.

Overall, the study found that, from 1948 to 2004, annual freshwater discharge into the Pacific Ocean fell by about 6 percent—about the same volume of water that flows out of the Mississippi River each year.

In the United States, the Columbia River's flow declined by about 14 percent during the 1948-2004 study period, largely because of reduced precipitation and higher water usage in the West. The Mississippi River, however, has increased by 22 percent over the same period because of greater precipitation across the Midwest since 1948.

Several of the rivers channeling less water serve large populations, including the Yellow River in northern China, the Ganges in India, the Niger in West Africa and the Colorado in the southwestern United States.

The annual flow into the Indian Ocean dropped by about 3 percent, or 140 cubic kilometers. In contrast, annual river discharge into the Arctic Ocean, where snow and ice are rapidly melting, rose about 10 percent, or 460 cubic kilometers.

Some rivers, such as the Brahmaputra in South Asia and the Yangtze in China, have shown stable or increasing flows. But they could lose volume in future decades with the gradual disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers feeding them, the scientists say.

Many factors affect river discharge, including dams and the diversion of water for agriculture and industry. The researchers found, however, that reduced flows in many cases appear to be related to global climate change, which is altering precipitation patterns and increasing the rate of evaporation.

Although the recent changes in freshwater discharge are relatively small and may have impacts only around major river mouths, Dai said the freshwater balance in the global oceans and over land needs to be monitored for long-term changes.

Discharge from the world's great rivers results in deposits of dissolved nutrients and minerals into the oceans.  The freshwater flow also affects global ocean circulation patterns, which are driven by changes in salinity and temperature, and which play a vital role in regulating the world's climate.

"As climate change inevitably continues in coming decades, we are likely to see greater impacts on many rivers and the water resources that society has come to rely on," says NCAR scientist Kevin Trenberth, a co-author of the report, which will be published May 15 in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate.

The research was supported by the National Science Foundation.

—By David Hosansky/NCAR.