Iraq Elections a Great Step Toward Turning Illusion to Promise

Mort Zuckerman

The famous scene of the giant statue of Saddam Hussein being toppled in Baghdad gave us an illusion of a victory that only now is in sight—almost six years later. The agonizingly long struggle between that moment and some semblance of order had its origins in that other toppling we did: dismantling the Iraqi Army.

It was American policy decisions that entrenched the power of the Shiite dominant coalition, which began a sectarian cleansing campaign against Iraq's minority Sunnis and thus tilted the country into a civil war. By 2005, Iraq was inundated by a violent insurgency pockmarked by suicide bombers, assassinations, and improvised explosive devices, leading many there and here to believe that the American occupation was doomed or had failed.

President Bush approved the blunders we made, and they will forever taint his reputation, for many lives were lost, many thousands maimed. Being loyal to incompetents is no virtue. But Bush merits final credit for his resolution to see it through and appointing new uniformed and civilian leaders, most notably Gen. David Petraeus, who understood counterinsurgency. "We cannot kill our way to victory," said Petraeus, and the Sunnis responded, for they saw his outstretched hand as the best chance of surviving sectarian violence and ethnic cleansing led by Shiites and fueled by neighboring Iran. Indeed, when President Obama visited Iraq as a candidate, he was given a petition signed by all the Sunni sheiks, virtually all of whom were cooperating with U.S. forces, urging the United States to stay engaged in Iraq. "Don't leave us with the Persians," they said. They meant Iran and the Shiites of Iraq.

The surge was successful not just because we put in an extra 30,000 American military personnel. Its success was as much the result of a new military doctrine wherein soldiers were instructed to protect and win over civilians. The decisive battleground was with the Iraqi people: The Sunni tribes switched sides, and the biggest Shiite militia, the Mahdi Army, declared a cease-fire.

Bush's decision in the face of a vastly unpopular war restored confidence and purpose to a military that had come to think deep down that this war might be unwinnable. If we had pulled out—as very many urged—we would have given an enormous boost to the jihadist movement, undermined our alliances with Sunni Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, and threatened countries like India and Pakistan because of their large Muslim populations. But that possibility was turned on its head as America reversed Iraq's descent into a sectarian blood bath. Iraqis have now taken their country back.

There is calm in Iraq at a level unknown in the six years since we invaded. It may be fragile. One may wonder whether it will sustain a total American withdrawal. But the sense of progress has been reinforced by the peaceful nature of the recent elections for provincial councils, in which groups that did not participate last time took part. The voting represents a great step forward in the process of integrating different social groups into the political process, paving the way for parliamentary elections later this year. Approximately 15 million out of an estimated 17 million-plus Iraqis eligible to vote signed up to cast ballots. New parties emerged. Campaigns were conventional. Virtually all of Iraq's key political players participated directly or indirectly, even in the provinces that once were the heartland of the insurgency. The Iraqis could choose from a slate of candidates nominated by political parties rather than just for the party, making politicians more directly accountable. Religious parties seem to have made no more headway.

With the surge almost at an end, General Petraeus has become the most admired American general in modern times. The final military campaign has gone so well in Iraq that expectations have been raised that he will be able to accomplish something similar in Afghanistan. Yet the difficulties are immense. Afghanistan remains a primitive society, beset by drug lords and corruption, and its troubled neighbor, Pakistan, provides a safe haven for terrorists as Cambodia did for the Viet Cong during the Vietnam War. The hateful Taliban has gained with every accidental civilian death resulting from our operations against it. President Obama is sending more troops, as he said he would during the election campaign, but more troops have not so far brought any commensurate gains. Pakistan talks but does not deliver: Special