Keep Boko Haram on the Run

The Nigerian terrorist organization Boko Haram has recently suffered an unprecedented string of defeats. An aggressive multinational force has dislodged it from 17 of the 20 local government areas it once dominated, and the international community is increasing its assistance for the fight. For the first time in six years, Boko Haram is in retreat.

The group’s predicament is a golden opportunity to bring peace to a region that has been wracked by terrorism for years, but there is danger it could be squandered. The government’s belated effort suggests the offensive is at least partially motivated by political reasons ahead of a tight presidential election scheduled for Saturday, and is not the start of a serious long-term effort to restore order to northeastern Nigeria.

The international community is, rightly, rallying to assist Nigeria, but its help should be designed to ensure the Nigerian government sustains the current military push and addresses the grievances that created an enabling environment for Boko Haram. Anything short of that will allow the resilient terrorist group to re-emerge to again devastate Nigeria and destabilize a fragile region.

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On Feb. 7, Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission announced it was postponing the country’s elections as security for the polls could not be guaranteed in four of Nigeria’s northeastern states. This was undoubtedly true – at the time, Boko Haram controlled about 20,000 square miles of Nigeria.

Yet the fact that peaceful elections in swathes of Nigeria are impossible has been obvious for years. Boko Haram has steadily grown in power since 2009 when it re-emerged after the death of its founder, Mohammed Yusuf. Last year alone it killed 10,000 people, and in January of this year murdered as many as 2,000 when it conquered a town called Baga; if the number is accurate, the massacre would be one of the worst terror attacks of the modern era. After all this carnage, it strains belief that the Nigerian security forces would have concluded only in February that parts of Nigeria are unsafe for elections. Rather, the delay was likely intended to allow Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan to garner additional political support. Liberating northeastern zones will probably boost Jonathan’s main challenger, Muhammadu Buhari, as the areas that were under Boko Haram dominion are Buhari strongholds. Some opposition voters who would not have been able to vote will be able to now, though turnout may still be dampened by fear of an attack.

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But the multinational force’s gains since the postponement have undercut some of the criticism of Jonathan for his failure to subdue Boko Haram. The extension has also forced Buhari to campaign for another six weeks, draining his election coffers. Most significantly, it has given millions of likely Jonathan supporters time to collect their required permanent voting cards. Before the postponement, collection rates of these cards in the South, which generally supports Jonathan, significantly lagged behind collection rates in the Buhari-supporting North.

The political motivation behind the postponement should concern Nigeria’s allies not only because it strains the country’s young democracy, but also because the government may be tempted to return to its ruinous approach to fighting Boko Haram once the need to win voters has faded. Nothing is more emblematic of the lethargy that has often characterized the government’s efforts than its non-response to Boko Haram kidnapping more than 200 schoolgirls from the town of Chibok in April 2014. The girls’ parents eventually so despaired of getting help that, armed with little more than bows and arrows, they mounted their own pursuit of the kidnappers. And it has been the security forces’ alternately hapless and brutal response to the group that enabled it to grow from a small Islamist militia to a regional terrorist organization capable of conquering parts of Nigeria.

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To be fair, only recently have Nigeria’s neighbors – Chad, Cameroon and Niger – wholeheartedly committed to fighting Boko Haram by clamping down on the group’s movement across borders and joining forces to roll Boko Haram back inside Nigeria. But it is primarily Nigeria’s responsibility to fight its home-grown insurgency, particularly as it has Africa’s largest economy and what is rated as one of its most powerful armies. Nigeria has for years failed to rethink its counterproductive approach to Boko Haram; it is unlikely it has abruptly done so now, especially as there is an election to be won. The many countries that wish for stability in the region should design the assistance they give to Nigeria to promote a comprehensive military and development campaign for the country’s Northeast. Training Nigerian and regional armies and police forces, and facilitating the creation of a regional border security system, would be good starts, but what will be most needed is sustained engagement from Nigeria’s allies to hold the country accountable to such a plan.

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Returning to business as usual after the election would be a disaster for Nigeria and the region. The punishment Boko Haram has meted out for years has caused immense suffering and destabilized an entire region full of American allies. Its recent affiliation with the Islamic State group may reorient Boko Haram from its current regional focus to a more international one. The group is a threat that must be defeated, and Nigeria must lead the way, long after the exigencies of election season have faded.