GOP Path to Majority in 2010 Election Is Tougher Than Polls Show

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Last I counted, the GOP will win 45 seats net...it could win upto 55. Senate is another story. WV and DE have essentially exchanged. Dems seem to be pulling away in CA and WA although we have not had any poll from the latter for a while. This means that the GOP has to win all other toss-ups plus one of CT or NY...an inside straight! My betting is it would be 50-50 in the Senate or 51-49 Dems.

George of VA 8:44AM September 28, 2010

Republicans once again won August, where Faux News set the agenda and inflammed nativist passions by attacking Hispanics and Muslims. The polls seemed to give them a 7 point lead, enough to take the House and push for the Senate.
However, elections aren't held on Labor Day. Three new polls show 6 point shifts back to Democrats, and taking out Rasmussen, Democrats have a thin lead that means Republicans would fall dozens of seats short of a majority.
Perhaps the public was turned off by Christine O'Donnell and the hideous GOP embrace of this mad women. Perhaps the public realized that handing the keys back to the party that crashed the economy isn't a bad idea In any case, the talk of a GOP runaway was premature at best.
If Republicans can't take the House in a year with 10% unemployment, they won't for several years. The economy is slowly improving and 2012 should be better than 2010 for Democrats, especially if Republicans turn to Palin as their savior. Meanwhile, Republican Hispanic bashing and gay bashing are turning off young voters and, of course, Hispanics.
That's without considering that the teabaggers are ripping the GOP in two. Republicans are running split tickets in 3 prominent races: Florida and Alaska Senate, and the NY Governor. This doesn't even consider the impact of the teabaggers on the House, as they lost NY-23 last year because of them.
If Republicans can't win in such a favorable climate, it's because America doesn't want them back. They need to spend more time in the wilderness and less time trying to make Obama fail.

AxelF of VA 8:18PM September 21, 2010

I agree that taking having the Republicans take over the house will be difficult and the senate almost impossible. But they will make significant gains in both. But future elections will look more promising for the Republicans. After the next round of redistricting based on the 2010 census, the northeast will loose seats and the south and west will gain. Texas will likely gain 4 seats. That will mean a gain of 4 republican seats just due to redistricting in one state.

Bob of TX 10:31AM September 09, 2010

...and for THIS, I'm being called a "fear-monger", a "hate-monger". and an "anger-monger"! (there may be some justification where #3 is concerned!)

A has-been-there of CA 10:21AM September 09, 2010

In addition, and as Katie has more or less stated, our current administration has a mindset to diminish the wealthy's status and redistribute to the "less fortunate".
Well....
Although we all hear of inherited wealth, and those who crookedly attain their wealth, there are far, far more people who have actually worked their fingers to the bone and have sacrificed dearly to attain the wealthy status they have come to, finally, enjoy.
Now, I am not a wealthy person, however, there was a time (for nearly twenty years) when I was quite familiar with the latter, but, decided to quit as I did not wish to hold the title as the richest man in the graveyard.
With these words in mind, I think of Obama's progressive liberal crowd and the ways he and his administration have been flagrantly dancing away our taxpayer dollars, and how many, many people with grit teeth, want to show these people, quite mildly, (if you get my drift) the exit door!
Come the Novembers of this year and 2012, you all know where my vote is going!

A has-been-there of CA 10:05AM September 09, 2010

PART TWO
As if this is what I want! I've consulted the subsidy calculator at the Kaiser Family Foundation and at my current salary (if things don't improve by 2014) and the subsidy I'd get my payment will be well over $100-150 a month. For an insurance policy with a $2000 deductible.
Susan, that's my grocery money for the month. So if I forego this wonderful non-benefit the government will penalize me.
And then there's the 10% VAT that's coming down the track.
I never in my life had a deep resentment welling up within me. But as I hear read articles by people like you, Katrina Van den Heuvel, Arianna Huffington, and Ezra Klein I wonder if you're aware of how many people are going to have less grocery money because of the penalties while you continue to enjoy gourmet quality food, nice clothing and creature comforts like aircondiditioning?
While this watered down insurance reform may help some people it's not the first thing that had to be done. Get people back to work, give us the dignity of earning our living and for goodness sake I want people to stop acting morally superior because they think taxing the rich will help us all.
Fair taxation yes. But stop acting as if this is a punishment on those wicked wealthy people. I've never had a poor person give me employment. We're all supposed to work together but this administration likes to play one group of people against another and it's going to spill over into relations in communities.
You'll be surprised at what people you think you know are really thinking.
I for one will let all social issues be subsumed by the necessity of my own needs to live and live well. No amount of fear mongering on either side will convince me to vote for them when I'm much worse now than previously. I'm working hard and want to advance, not slide back and not have the government penalize me just because I have to choose between grocery money and a POS insurance premiums.

KATIE STEVENS of NY 3:11AM September 09, 2010

PART ONE
Susan, You raise some very good points about the complexity of the issue if one is considering the vote from an intellectual or moral viewpoint.
I can't speak for anyone else but out of sheer necessity I am compelled to vote this time with my survival as the prime reason for casting my vote towards those whom I consider best suited to get our economy back on track.
The last time I voted Democrat out of a displaced sense of loyalty to the party of my grandparents. I've had plenty of time to see that the Progressives are in a power grab to gut the party from the inside out. They want to use it as a vehiicle to bring into the mainstream their own brand of rulership. It is a very off-putting approach and one that does not give the citizenry any value.
By value I mean we are not treated as not having any intelligence.
While healthcare reform is much needed the legislation that passed was not at all acceptable. It does nothing to control costs.
I want you to consider this. You have a job and I'm sure you can pay your rent on a very nice apartment or your mortgage on a home with all the creature comforts.
I'm barely getting by and want to get my life back into the middle class as I was before. My salary is now 1/3 of the pre-Recession salary I made. My former Progressive friends would smile and tell me I'll have no more worries now that I can get a subsidy for health insurance.

Katie Stevens of NY 3:10AM September 09, 2010

I have been warning him since this long week-end. Besides, a coward would not mention reporting. I would simple do it and keep quiet about it.
That might be cowardly maybe in your part of Missouri...
I by the way would not misrepresent what you said as you did me. Sign of stupidity considering everything is in written form below so can be verified.

Bill Hedges of MO 12:24AM September 09, 2010

I don't want same comment posted over, over, and over again. Why did you not mention that. Try being truthful instead of acting like I want to censor.
Your dishonesty is cowardly...

Bill Hedges of MO 11:46PM September 08, 2010

Bill Hedges of MO blames all posts he doesn't agree with on Independent of Ma.
He doesn't publicly address points. He wants comments to be:
"Hopefully they will be erased and/or he will be banned."
What Kind of American would take that stance? Definitely not a American. If Bill doesn't agree with someone,he wants them wants them censored. That has to be the definition of a evil coward.
Lets just start calling Bill what He is, Bill the Coward!
Hey Bill the Coward who do you want to censor next?

WM Henry 3.141593 of MO 11:32PM September 08, 2010