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Ignore the 2012 Polls, Obama-Romney Will Be Close

March 12, 2012 RSS Feed Print

That didn't long.

About three weeks ago, I wrote:

Maybe it will be a less-than-great jobs report. Maybe it will be a disappointing quarterly GDP growth estimate. Maybe gas prices really will spike this summer, and significantly constrain consumer spending and dampen overall growth. Maybe it will be a combination of all these things that upends the feeling that Obama is now on a cakewalk.

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll suggests that high gas prices have bitten into President Obama's economic approval ratings. This drag has erased the advantage Obama had held over former Gov. Mitt Romney: The Post/ABC News poll shows him losing to Romney 49-47 percent.

[See a collection of political cartoons on gas prices.]

A few caveats: As New York Times stats guru Nate Silver points out, Obama's average overall approval rating stands at 48 percent—exactly what it was one month ago.

So it's possible that recent numbers showing a dip in Obama's popularity are statistical noise—variations around an upwardly-trending mean.

But I think liberals would do well to heed the advice of Jamelle Bouie of The  American Prospect:

Supporters of the president should put the champagne away for now; the electorate is close to evenly divided, and regardless of who wins the Republican presidential contest, the eventual nominee will have a good shot at winning the presidency. Recent events have obscured this, but the simple fact is that the 2012 election will be close.

[Check out our editorial cartoons on President Obama.]

I should add that conservatives' chortling at negative polling data for Obama is equally foolish.

The election is going to be a nail-biter. It will turn on the fickle affections of a narrow sliver of independents whom I've called Oscillating Low-Information Voters. We simply cannot know in advance how such voters will feel on Election Day.

My advice: Stop watching the whiplash-inducing daily tracking polls. Don't bite on Matt Drudge's "shocker poll" bait. Resign yourself to the fact that you won't know who the next president is going to be until the morning of November 7—and maybe not even then.

Tags:
2012 presidential election,
Barack Obama,
Mitt Romney

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Hello Bill Hedges of Mo. You're a game fellow for backing the candidate of your choice. Newt Gingrich did work as speaker to balance the budget, that's the good news.. although he overexagerated his role and even missed the facts on many of the things he said.. all common speaking styles, but ok. Let's neither of us forget that Ron Paul was on the Same side as Newt Gingrich in the spending cuts all the way.

You have to admit that females hate Newt Gingrich because of his private life.. regardless that he might or might not be a good president. This only mentioned because of my premise that Gingrich would lose badly in the general, so my contention that he can't win are reasons other than his numbers in the popular vote or the delegate count.

Regarding the public funding of the banking scandals and the bail outs.. you Know the dems can smear Gingrich enough passion up the vote for the big government, big spending incumbent. Really Bill, your guy is unelectable in the general election and Ron Paul is in a much Stronger position before all of the American people than he is before the party that traditionally attracts militarists and social conservatives who legislate their particular lifestyle into "law" (statute). Maybe you know that Gingrich went from "legalize medical cannabis" in the seventies to "hang drug merchants En Mass".. what do you think happened along the way? Some people guess that backroom political deal making and pandering for funding are endemic in Washington. Odd that one (Congressman Ron Paul) or a few have opposed corruption and unconstitutional spending in every case.

In a den of thieves, an honest man doesn't hold a lot of sway. One Congressman can't do much. Yet, if the honest man gets elected and takes the protection away from the pickpockets, then justice is done.

Dr. Ron Paul is changing the course of history, my friend, and your fella might have the right instincts at times... but he could never unite the American people to recover domestic freedoms already lost or to create an international atmosphere of peace. peace through strength, not peace through aggression. You want to feel proud of your country? Check out some Veteran's march on Washington videos on the internet (ie: youtube).. there's strength in our young people.. and they Want freedom and justice and truth.. just like it should be my friend Bill Hedges.

The old paradigms of conflict and repression must end. Being retired law, there is certainty inside of me that amongst us are predators and thieves. Some of them in high places. Not accusing your man here, it's just that Dr. Paul and our evolution to a free and peaceful society are manifest rather than any sort of fantasies you can dream up.

A peaceful revolution for American freedom is happening on several fronts. Check out the Free State Project in New Hampshire online and find out that the world is already changing. Lady Liberty holds a torch for all of us.

Peace.

John of NY 11:58AM March 14, 2012

John of NY_ R. Paul is bottom of the Totem pole and as old. John, don't let mere facts stand in your way of making Paul President. Try some TRUTH YOU PROVE...

If Newt is out of the race, R. Paul is 6’ under ground. Do check polls.

You joined a Insane Country Club with “Ron Paul or Mitt Romney against Barack Obama will be too close to call right up til the end”. Show the validation for that Walt Disney Mid Summer Night fantasy FAIRY TALE.

Prove your Freddie Mac comments. Plenty of proof Newt said investigate f/f. Nothing to support anything done WRONG BY NEWT except he and his company received money.

Show SOMETHING Paul has accomplished in D.C.. Even if just a speeding ticket. Paul wishes he balanced budget and made government smaller like Newt DID. Paul never got out of first gear...

Bill Hedges of MO 5:31PM March 13, 2012

The premise that the November election will be close is valid.. given that Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich (sorry Bill Hedges) are NOT the nominee. Ron Paul or Mitt Romney against Barack Obama will be too close to call right up til the end.

Rick Santorum would quickly become unelectable once he's outside of the Republican party evangelical segment. Newt Gingrich can't escape his record of deceit and his influence peddling for big money... money the taxpayers were gouged for [think Freddie Mac consulting fees 1.6 million]

Mitt Romney is a successful business man, with good business sense.. let's say; but Mitt Romney supports the killing missions of our military without Congressional authority. Also, Mitt Romney is dead set against the use of medical cannabis even for those who Will die without it. (put "Romney medical cannabis" in youtube search to watch for yourself)

Barack Obama shouldn't rise or fall according to the yardstick of gas prices, he should exit left according to unconstitutional killings he's done and unconstitutional repressions of American civil liberties. A president working off death lists and intent on denying effective herbal medicine to the sick and dying.. isn't a good president. Give us instead a man of honor, truth and consistency.

Dr. Ron Paul is the right Statesman for American renewal, both spiritual and financial. No one but Paul 2012.

John of NY 9:19AM March 13, 2012

Scott Galupo

Scott Galupo

Scott Galupo is a Washington-based freelance writer. He formerly worked for House Republican Leader John Boehner, and was a staff writer for The Washington Times.

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