Robert Schlesinger

Why Are Polls So Screwy?

October 23, 2008 RSS Feed Print

Does anyone else find the most recent batch of poll numbers mystifying? Take Ohio. Two different polls released today give Barack Obama a double-digit lead (12 points and 14 points). A third poll, released yesterday, had Obama up there by 4 points. Does anyone really think that Obama is up a dozen points in Ohio? Pennsylvania seems more consistent, with five different polls released today showing Obama with a 10 to 13 point lead.

National polls are the worst—eight different polls came out today, including three from Gallup alone, and they put the race at everywhere from 1 point (Obama up, 45-44) to a dozen points (Obama, 52-40). If you drop those two polls, there is some consistency—Obama seems to be hanging around the 48 to 50 neighborhood, while McCain stays mired in the 45 to 46 area.

What do you think? Post your thoughts in the comments section.

Tags:
presidential election 2008,
polls

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You cant ever trust polls by CNN/TIME or AP/UPI becuase they are mostly taken from certian araes and are most likely rigged to favor what liberals who take them want and if the polls are in favor of conservatives the liberal distort or lie about it all

Flu-Bird of CA 4:17PM March 18, 2009

The liberals and liberal media are using the "polls" to try to convince everyone that Obama has already won and anyone voting against him should just stay home, forget it.They want McCain to just quietly bow out.

I believe that if Obama wins, in 4 years the smug, supercilious, sneering liberals will be a lot more subdued. I predict that Obama's fall will be even more dramatic than that of liberal leaders such as the Clintons or Marion Barry. Both the Marion Barry and Bill Clinton regimes were greeted with hosannas and screaming delight from the liberazis. The Clintons were going to establish a nirvana in the U.S., and Barry was going to make D.C. heaven on earth. What say ye about them now, liberals?

Pam Ela of VA 11:26AM October 27, 2008

I was listening recently to an NPR story about this same topic. According to the piece, because an increasing number of individuals use a cell phone as their only phone, it is becoming more difficult to conduct polls. Apparently, this is the first time in many decades that fewer than 70% of Americans have a land line phone. This could explain the vast discrepancies between online (an AOL poll from last Saturday listed McCain as ahead, for example) and traditional polls. Perhaps pollsters need to join the current century.

Oh, and to Mr. James Craig of NY: interestingly, I am 34 year old and have been polled twice in the last eight years. It was a little exciting. Of course, I live in Maine, so perhaps the population skews the odds in my favor.

Jennifer Feldman of ME 7:51PM October 24, 2008

Robert Schlesinger

Robert Schlesinger

Robert Schlesinger is managing editor for opinion at U.S. News and World Report, overseeing all opinion editorial content. He is the author of White House Ghosts: Presidents and Their Speechwriters. E-mail him at rschlesinger@usnews.com. Follow him on Twitter: @rschles.

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