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The Polls May Be Screwy But Barack Obama's Lead Is Real Because He's Strong Among White Voters
Tweet Share on Facebook October 24, 2008 Comment (65)OK, Rob. About those screwy polls. For those among us who are polling junkies, the fellows at fivethirtyeight.com have put together a couple of primers on the science of public opinion.
Here is an explanation of the many tracking polls, which explains how the various polling organizations get their samples and other tricks of the trade.
And this post goes over some of the same territory but with a persuasive analysis that the polls showing Barack Obama with a sizable lead are real.
Here's my favorite factoid, which is based on the reality that, despite the growing multicultural nature of American society, white folks still elect our presidents.
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John McCain's Chances of Victory
Tweet Share on Facebook October 24, 2008 Comment (51)The chattering class and the conventional wisdom have it that the presidential race has been over since about two weeks ago and John McCain is toast.
Reading the national poll numbers, and even most maps of the electoral vote, it certainly seems that way. I refuse to prognosticate in even the most obvious of races. And I refuse to do so in this presidential race as I've been wrong at least a half-dozen times since the summer of '07 when the media declared Hillary Clinton the presumptive Democratic nominee.
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Barack Obama Gains More Republican Support, Including From Charles Fried, a John McCain Adviser
Tweet Share on Facebook October 24, 2008 Comment (10)Our "Five Things" today (over in the center column of the U.S. News opinion page, to the right of the Thomas Jefferson Street blog) is a list of major Republicans who have endorsed Barack Obama. Little did we realize how quickly the list would grow today.
Sure, Scott McClellan endorsing Obama probably won't come as a surprise in some conservative circles. And those same folks probably won't be taken aback at former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld's approval of the Democratic nominee.
But here's my favorite of the day: Charles Fried, a former solicitor general under Ronald Reagan, has endorsed Obama. Here's the kicker: Fried was an active member of John McCain's campaign as recently as last month, serving on a pair of campaign advisory committees (hat tip to TPM).
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Sarah Palin's Feminist Flip-Flop
Tweet Share on Facebook October 24, 2008 Comment (133)You needn't be a Rhodes scholar to be able to keep your gender philosophy straight, particularly within the period of a month or so. Yet Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has flubbed even that, according to ABC's Political Radar:
In an interview on NBC Nightly News that aired yesterday, Brian Williams asked Palin: "Governor, are you a feminist?"
"I'm not gonna label myself anything, Brian," said Palin. "And I think that's what annoys a lot of Americans, especially in a political campaign, is to start trying to label different parts of America different, different backgrounds, different...I'm not going to put a label on myself."
But label herself is just what she did last month in an interview with CBS's Katie Couric, who asked her if she considered herself a feminist. Her answer was an unabashed, "I do."
These kinds of 180s are bad enough when they occur on major policy issues, such as federal bailouts, whether or not to cut taxes, etc. But when they occur within a short period of time and on a simpler question, it really calls into question the intelligence level of the interviewee.
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Alan Greenspan Speaks on the Financial Crisis
Tweet Share on Facebook October 23, 2008 Comment (13)Rep. Henry Waxman runs the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee in a way it hadn't been run in decades before his takeover. The California Democrat really knows how to stick the knife in and twist it. He did so today with former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who retired as a beloved figure but who has since been found extremely culpable in the current credit crisis because he promoted less government oversight over derivatives.
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Why Are Polls So Screwy?
Tweet Share on Facebook October 23, 2008 Comment (7)Does anyone else find the most recent batch of poll numbers mystifying? Take Ohio. Two different polls released today give Barack Obama a double-digit lead (12 points and 14 points). A third poll, released yesterday, had Obama up there by 4 points. Does anyone really think that Obama is up a dozen points in Ohio? Pennsylvania seems more consistent, with five different polls released today showing Obama with a 10 to 13 point lead.
National polls are the worst—eight different polls came out today, including three from Gallup alone, and they put the race at everywhere from 1 point (Obama up, 45-44) to a dozen points (Obama, 52-40). If you drop those two polls, there is some consistency—Obama seems to be hanging around the 48 to 50 neighborhood, while McCain stays mired in the 45 to 46 area.
What do you think? Post your thoughts in the comments section.
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Sarah Palin, a Drag Around John McCain's Neck
Tweet Share on Facebook October 23, 2008 Comment (20)Headline in today's Washington Post: "McCain Tries to Push Past Palin Backlash"
Sarah Palin has clearly become a drag on the ticket of a magnitude that is already setting records in the "drag" category all on its own. I feel better when I hear media comments explaining that pundits (yours truly included) found her to be a brilliant selection at first because she did a great job of rallying the base. But since then, revelations of her abuse of office for family retribution and personal financial gain, pregnant teenage daughter, accepting a blessing against witchcraft, claiming that God will play a role in the November 4 election, $150,000 wardrobe, and so on and so on and so on have pushed her negatives higher than her positives. Brilliant choice? Not! Quelle surprise!!
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Sarah Palin's $150,000 Real Life Reality Makeover
Tweet Share on Facebook October 23, 2008 Comment (26)Did anyone hold it against Carrie and the gals when they bought all those ridiculously expensive Manolo Blahnik shoes?
Did we not root our hearts out for Miss Vivian when she returned from that shopping trip on Rodeo Drive, put on that amazing red dress, and found happiness in the arms of Richard Gere, her very own Prince Charming?
Didn't Andrew Lloyd Webber make a gazillion bucks with Evita?
Friends, I really don't think that Sarah Palin is going to pay too much a price for her $150,000 wardrobe. Not as our newest celebrity Cinderella.
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Barack Obama and John McCain Through the Looking Glass—Racism at Work?
Tweet Share on Facebook October 22, 2008 Comment (32)The following ditty has been floating around in the E-mail-sphere, attributed to one Roger Leisner of something called Radio Free Maine. Mr. Leisner does indeed have a Web presence, but scouring his Web postings, I could not find the following. I am not in political accord with Mr. Leisner or whoever wrote the following, but it does make some fascinating points that, a la Alice in Wonderland, make you stare into a mirror image of the world as it is and ponder the plausible opposite. I have edited out references to events I do not know to be factually accurate. Read away:
Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin, what if things were switched around? ...think about it.
Would the country's collective point of view be different?
Could racism be the culprit?Ponder the following:
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Sarah Palin's Flameout: $150,000, the Vice Presidency, Sinking Poll Numbers, and More
Tweet Share on Facebook October 22, 2008 Comment (139)Years from now, Sarah Palin may be the perfect case study for a political shooting star.
First she was a rock star, someone happily capable of bringing life to a moribund McCain campaign—someone who could rev up the base and maybe pick off a few Hillary Clinton voters.
Then came the dark times—the Gibson interview, the Couric interview, Troopergate, the debate in which she breezily refused to actually answer the questions. The "Hockey Mom" charm wore off quickly as she grasped the vice presidential pit-bull role, bringing it to new levels of divisiveness with comments about "real America" that even she acknowledged were, ahem, unhelpful.
But the dark times are over. That brilliant flash you see? Sarah Palin flaming out. Or exploding. Or crashing and burning. It's been that kind of week for the Alaska governor.
