PHILADELPHIA--If there is a strong anti-Bush earthquake on election night this fall across the country, a major indicator is likely to be in Pennsylvania.
The best-case scenario for the Democrats in the Keystone State: Defeat incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Santorum, re-elect Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell, and win from two to four House seats now held by Republicans. It is a tall order,especially in the House races, but could happen if there is a resounding disgust with Bush's policies.
"I don't think the real anger is there yet," said one longtime observer of state politics. "It seems to be one of more bewilderment now."
Also, the dog days of summer are usually lag times in politics. After Labor Day, the administration's actions are likely to be judged more closely.
The defeat of Santorum is high on the Democratic wish list. His opponent, Bob Casey, fails to energize crowds and is hardly Mr. Charisma.
But the election will certainly turn on dismay with Santorum, who has trailed Casey in all the major polls. Santorum will spend heavily in the final stretch and can't be counted out.
Rendell should win another term. He's savvy and has a huge campaign treasury to knock down criticism of his agreeing to a controversial pay raise for state legislators last year. His GOP rival, former Pittsburgh Steeler wideout Lynn Swann, has encountered difficulty in getting a campaign organized and may discover his exploits in pro football don't carry over to politics, another rough game.
Democrats are counting on a deluge of votes in the Philly suburbs and exurbs. The No. 1 target is Republican Jim Gerlach, who barely won in 2004.
Next is freshman Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, whose consistent backing of Bush could unseat him in November.
Lesser possibilities are veteran Rep. Curt Weldon and Rep. Don Sherwood in the Scranton area, who has some personal baggage to carry.
The big unknown, of course, is the depth of the mad-as-hell sentiment on the war in Iraq and GOP stands on social issues, which tend to bring some moderate Republicans here into the Democratic ranks.
In any case, watch results in Pennsylvania as a barometer to the country.
John W. Mashek covered politics in Washington for four decades with U.S. News & World Report, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and the Boston Globe. His primary beats were Congress, the White House, and national politics. He covered every presidential election from 1960 to 1996. He was a panelist in three televised presidential debates in 1984, 1988, and 1992.
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