White Voters and the Fall of the Democratic Party

If Obama doesn't close the gap among low-income white voters, get ready for President McCain.


DENVER—The Democrats, once the party of the common man, have forfeited that status in recent years. These days, the party is too often seen as a voice for elitists who undermine American families with confiscatory taxes, social engineering, loose moral discipline, overregulation, and timidity abroad.

In a 20-page special section in the Denver Post on Sunday, I traced the course of the Democratic Party's rise and fall as champion of the little guy, and its hopes to recapture that mantle in the future.

Two statistics, supplied by ace demographic wizard Ruy Teixeira, tell the tale.

Among white voters without a college degree, earning from $30,000 to $40,000 a year, George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 24 points in 2004.

And among white voters without a college degree earning between $50,000 and $75,000 a year, Kerry lost by 41 points.

Unless the Democrats can cut these margins to 10 points or so, says Teixeira, John McCain will be president.