Bipartisan Immigration Reform Bill: Too Forgiving on Lawbreakers?

Allow me come to the CONCLUSION section first and then I will document the path of getting there. Comprehensive Immigration Reform (in its present proposed form) will end up costing Americans $90 Billion per year.

Based upon PEW research 85% of undocumented aliens are Latinos coming from Mexico, & south and Central America. Their TFR (Census Bureau) total fertility rate is above 3.0 meaning that for every female in the range of age 17-40 on the average will have 3 children. Under current tax laws a family earning minimum wage or more will receive a positive cash tax credit of $1000 for each child under age 17. Assuming that 45% of the 12,000,000 undocumented are such females (5,400,000) have or will have 3 children each, or a total of 16.2 million children, each entitled to a $1000 CHILD TAX CREDIT. Then the CTC could theoretically hit a high of $16.2 billion. As the children age out that number will decline, but as their children age the valley of the curve will once again climb putting the $1000 CTC on perhaps a plateau or a slightly climbing curve (dependent upon their children's TFR).

Next the Earned Income Tax Credit for a family of three children for CY 2009 was $4687 for a family of 3 kids earning $26,000 or for a family of 3 earning $20,000 the EITC was $5667. Both these figures are above minimum wage. Run the numbers; average EITC to $5177 for the above 5.4 million females and you get a product of $28 billion. Their health care for the dad, the mom and 3 children will cost $6804 per year for a total family cost of $36.7 billion. So far, the grand total is $80.9 billion. Mind you, I am not finished. Federal aid to education for them will cost $1000 per child per year. Assuming that they will have all 3 in children in school at the same time, the cost will be as high as $3000 per family for a total of $16.2 billion. Have I passed $90 billion yet?

Finally the costs to states will run a low of $7500 in California and $11000 in New York to educate them. Let's average education costs to the states at $9250, thus each immigrant family costs state treasuries $27,750 for a family of 3 kids. The education costs will exceed $149.9 billion. Now have I passed $90 billion. We are talking about a range of costs. The lower portion of the range will be $90 billion the upper portion will exceed $200 billion it all depends upon our citizens carrying the CTC, the EITC and the education costs. of course the amnesty advocates will say, "they will pay taxes!" Oh yeah? How... when their incomes will hover around $10-$12 per hour. No income tax... only renters' taxes on real property and sales taxes. I am a tax preparer. THEY WILL PAY NO INCOME TAX. they will pay FICA and Medicare taxes. In California they will buy State Disability Insurance, but their withdrawals will match or exceed that insurance. THEY ARE AND WILL BECOME THE LARGEST ECONOMIC BURDEN THAT HIS COUNTRY HAS EVER ASSUMED (beyond war).

Captain H Frith II of CA 6:13PM October 07, 2010