Convention Bounce in Evidence for Obama

The convention bounce has finally appeared. It appeared with a vengeance in today's daily presidential tracking poll by the Gallup organization:

"PRINCETON, NJ — Democratic candidate Barack Obama has gained ground in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and now leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by a 48% to 42% margin."

The Rasmussen poll shows a much more modest bounce:

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it's Obama 47% and McCain 47%.

Quite frankly, the Gallup bounce is of the size I have been expecting all along, coming as it seems to have a few days later than I would have thought. The question now is whether it lasts and if so, for how long. The next question is whether Sen. John McCain gets a smaller, bigger, or similar bounce from his vice presidential nominee selection and his convention that starts almost as soon as the Democratic convention ends.

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