The worldview (in Washington at least) is that the Republicans have already lost the U.S. House and that the Senate could go either way. I heard a contrary view yesterday that I share herewith. A well-connected Republican pollster told me that internal White House polls show the Republicans hanging on to majority control of the House by one seat (translating into a 14-seat loss for the GOP) and maintaining control of the Senate (the latter being much of a surprise).
The reason? This person's view is that the Democrats "peaked too soon" and that the fallout from the Foley page scandal, though massive in appearance, will be minimal in terms of actual House seats lost.
This person adds, "Our GOTV [get out the vote] machine crushes theirs." The same factor has been bothering a Democratic friend of mine and former high-level Clinton administration appointee who, contrary to blogosphere euphoria, fears superior GOP GOTV could obliterate many hoped-for Democratic congressional gains.
Lastly, another plugged-in Democratic fundraiser tells me Republican operatives are spreading stories of projected 30- and 40-seat House losses to puff up Democrats and make them overconfident going into the November elections. Far as I can tell, it's not working. My Democratic sources are hopeful but not overconfident and, if anything, running scared despite media hype of polls showing they should be glowing.