Has the 'Peak Oil' Tipping Point Arrived?

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Totally misses the point - we're at 7billion people on this planet and growing - our "commercial agriculture" uses petrochemicals as fertilizer/pesticide, oil powered vehicles to plant/harvest crops, to transport them for processing, to transport them around the country/world, where you drive an oil powered vehicle to the grocery store to purchase your food.
... if oil starts declining, how do we feed an ever growing (and in many 3rd world countries, already struggling to grow food) population?
The price of oil is irrelevant to a point - but the price increases it will entail for food isn't. Climate change is irrelevant except for how it will impact food production. Simple fact is, we could "survive" without 250million cars in the world, but we can't survive without food (and usable water, which we are also depleting).
Stop thinking financial impact, climate impact, etc - how does it affect our food supply? We won't be cheaply shipping food 1000's of miles.

PeteH of CT 12:12AM March 04, 2012

Just wanted to make sure I didn't need to sign up for anything before posting the comment I intended - and waste my time.
The issue isn't just about economics, but many business stock is overrated because of oil dependency. You're going to see stocks fall in a lot of big companies. The basics will be harder to obtain such as food. As for electricity - well we should be using every last bit of oil that we can to create a renewable infrastructure (and not nuclear) as best we can. Nuclear relies on oil as much as coal and would be lunacy to create a reliance on something that would become more expensive as oil prices go up. - Think about it, we mine uranium, then import if from places like Africa and Australia - where do we get the oil from to mine if and transport it...? So I think nuclear is just dumb in this context! We need 'placed' generation like wind, wave and solar. Especially solar as that tech is improving at an incredible rate. And those energy generators need to be community schemes rather than big power or big government.
People need an energy revolution and they need energy freedom - it is the only way we will save the largest amount of people. Then we need to teach people to live off the land again and be more independent about where the food comes from. I guess many will think I am crazy. But the crisis will get worse and worse as the price of a barrel of oil goes up.

Mike 12:49PM March 03, 2012

Just need to check this!

Mike of WY 12:40PM March 03, 2012

Economists say not to be scared because the scientists will think of something while at the same time ignoring the scientists' warnings.
It will be obvious to everybody in the next year or two. Scary times.
Plant a garden.
A big one.
Seriously!

Shawn Aune of MN 7:51PM March 02, 2012

I don't understand your fear of policy "waste".
It all comes back to Joel Pett's famous cartoon: "What if it's a big hoax and we create a better world for nothing!"
All of the solutions Murray and King propose would be worth doing for a thousand reasons, if this is the catalyst that makes them happen and it's wrong, so be it. And any analysis of the risks versus the cost make it a no brainer.

Niles Ridgeman 2:59PM March 02, 2012

Silly me. I always thought inelastic supply was a concept I learned in Econ 101. Must be getting old.

Backcreek of PA 12:18PM March 02, 2012

I'm always amused by various articles like this one that need some all defining moment of the arrival of peak oil.
sorry to burst your bubble but we are in peak, but it's not some sort of wyle e. coyote moment of falling off a cliff.
peak oil is a plateau where prices osillate up and down for a long period of time as various nations and corporations continue to try a squeeze out more oil to meet demand.
Pretty much what we have been experiencing for the past 5-6 years.
This is what peak oil looks like.
It will probably last for at least another 5 to 6 years then the slow decline when supply is no longer able to keep up with demand. And while the ability to pump more out of the gound will be slower, the price per barrel will sky rocket.

Oil Slick of TX 10:13AM March 02, 2012

I think they're downplaying it. Read the Hirsch Report from '05- the damage will be unprecedented. We haven't paid enough attention to this and when the public starts to understand it- they'll panic- like they always do. That will exacerbate the situation and you could see oil go over $200/b. I agree, we'll try to frack our way out of it- it'll be interesting to see how that goes. Doesn't seem to be going too smooth here in NY state at the moment. I'm rooting for fracking- I have 100 acres sitting atop Marcellus/Utica shale. Nonetheless, my next car is going to be a Honda Civic GX- just to be on the safe side :)

FarmerJulia of NY 9:17AM March 02, 2012

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Excluding Iran from the global oil market would increase the shortfall between worldwide supply and demand sixfold, based on February production and consumption estimates, the U.S. Energy Department said.
Global fuel use averaged 3 million barrels a day more than output when Iran is excluded from the calculations and 500,000 more when Iran is included, the department’s Energy Information Administration said in a report yesterday.
The examination of oil and fuel supplies and prices with and without Iran was prepared to help guide President Barack Obama’s administration in determining the feasibility of imposing sanctions related to Iranian oil trades through its central bank. Yesterday’s report was the first assessment issued under a Dec. 31 law that requires the EIA to provide an update on oil market conditions every 60 days.
“The EIA report highlights how tight the global market is,” Trevor Houser, an energy analyst and partner at Rhodium Group, a New York-based economic research firm, said in an interview.
“With oil inventories and spare OPEC production capacity running low, consumers don’t have much buffer against additional disruptions in supply.
OPEC spare oil production capacity dropped 33 percent in the first two months of this year compared with same period in 2011, the report showed. The 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had an average 2.5 million barrels a day spare capacity during January and February, down from 3.7 million a year earlier.

Mobius007 of IN 8:42PM March 01, 2012