On Congress

Let's face it: Members of Congress are not exactly popular these days. In the latest CBS News poll, congressional approval is down to a measly 23 percent. That's not exactly inspiring if you are an incumbent, which is why so many of them have been trying to find ways to pander to voters.

But if you're a Republican, the numbers are downright dangerous. Why? Because on almost every issue, voters seem to prefer Democrats to Republicans–in handling the war in Iraq, keeping gas prices low, keeping the military strong, even sharing your moral values. The one area in which the GOP maintains a slight edge: dealing with terrorism, 40 to 35 percent. The difference in the GOP's favor in that area used to be in the double digits. In other words, it's all falling apart.

The Democratic plan, clearly, is to try to nationalize the election around the electorate's discontent. That's what happened in 1994, when the GOP – led by Newt Gingrich – took control of Congress. And there are some striking parallels. There was an unpopular president (Bill Clinton) with some very unpopular policies (national health care reform). Today, President Bush is even less popular than Clinton, and his war in Iraq is unpopular. As a party, the Democrats today enjoy a 55 percent favorability rating; in 1994, the Republicans were at 54 percent.

But there are some major differences. You can't discount the fact that Congress has now been gerrymandered into permanency. Members – and their state legislatures – have redrawn districts into almost sure things, so fewer seats are really in play. The Democrats need only 15 seats to retake control of the House, but that isn't going to be easy. And there's one more thing: The GOP had its Contract With America (introduced in the fall of 1994), and so far, at least, the Democrats don't have much of a contract, except for some talk about raising the minimum wage and investigating Republicans. They will probably have one in the fall, but they had better offer more than that–if they want to win in a national election.

As they say, overnight can be a lifetime in politics. The Democrats probably wish the election were tomorrow–but it's not. And Republicans are thinking that at least they have six months to fix things, or not.