Analyzing the Absentee Ballots in the New York 20 Special House Election

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This shows that the GOP still has a problem with its base or a HUGE problem with independents...at least in this district.
This race should not have been close if the parties were returning to historical parity. With a 15 point Party ID lead, you DO NOT lose special elections if your party is remotely healthy. EVER.
If we were to assume that the GOP held the line and got a representative turnout and good 90%+ loyalty among those registered GOP voters, then they got CREMED among independents. That would mean losing independents roughly 2 to 1.
If the GOP loses independents 2 to 1 nationally, that translates into a 16 point loss at the polls based on a 33 / 39 / 28 split. 58-42. That is a wipeout.
For the GOP, I hope it is a base issue. After 3 years of Obama, the base is easier to fix than the independents. Losing Independents by 30 points will take a sea change in public opinion to fix at this point.

Matt of MA 4:44PM April 02, 2009

There is no way you can compare results at the polls to the absentee vote patterns. Anyone who does so is taking a big risk...
The only reason this race is close is:
1. Some Republican crossover -- Gillibrand did well with Republicans
2. Strong Democrat party line loyalty
3. Solid % of Independents going Democrat
Now, absentees are just different. They are always more party loyal. That is why they request the ballot. Those that respond are even more party loyal.
1. The GOP will not suffer from the crossover issue as much with absentees
2. Democrats will stay loyal, but this will not change
I have not seen any exits, but based on known Party ID (41 R / 26 D / 33 I) if you assumed that Tedisco got 85% of the GOP vote 7.5% of DEM vote and 40% of IND vote that puts him right at 50%, which is what he got.
If you assume that in the absentees will vote 95% to 5% along Party ID lines and the IND still goes 60% to Murphy you get about a 500 vote advantage for Tedisco simply because absentees are going to be more loyal on the GOP side than the poll voter.
Keep in mind that Murphy closed very late in this contest, and the absentee voters probably voted when it looked like a Tedisco win.
Even if he loses independents 2 to 1, he still wins by 200+ votes.
Tedisco is going to win if absentee Republican voters are even slightly more loyal than the poll voter. History shows that they are MUCH more loyal.

Matt of MA 4:28PM April 02, 2009

Several times over the years I've requested an absentee ballot and having taken my time reseraching the issues/candidates realized there wasn't enough time to mail the ballot (where I lived it had to be "received" no later than election day.) Therefore, I hand delivered it the precinct where I would have voted in person and it was put in the ballot box. Any count on how many "absentee ballots" have already been counted?

No to Acorn of VA 3:56PM April 02, 2009

Is there any way to analyze the actual election day vote in terms of how it compares to the district's voter registration breakdown? If it was heavy with D's and Tedisco is only down a few votes, tne absentees should put him over the top. If the election day turnout was overweighted with R's and Murphy still came out on top, a more normal weighted absentee count should not hurt Murphy.
Good analysis by Mr. Barone...the best in the business.

CJ of TN 3:21PM April 02, 2009

With all due respect Bill Sjem, absentee ballots are requested through the county clerk's office and not through the parties.

marcp 3:12PM April 02, 2009

There is also an inconsistency in Columbia which reports 1407 out but the sum of Dem+Rep+All Other is 1111, a miss of 296 ballots out. Dutchess has a similar discrepancy of 22 and Delaware of 6. All others match exactly. There undoubtedly is some noise in the counts right now, and certainly there are in these data. It isn't uncommon to see multiple shifts in counts so all the numbers should be treated cautiously with such a tiny margin.
Wonderful analysis by Michael, as usual, here and in his first cut at this.

Charles Franklin of WI 2:07PM April 02, 2009

Isn't it the case that most absentee ballots were filled-out days or even weeks before the election? My understanding from public polling is that Tadisco had a sizable lead a few weeks before election day. Wouldn't that help him in the absentees?

Scot of CO 2:03PM April 02, 2009

The ballots mailed out will be more in line with party loyalty. If I am a voter who is registered republican and voting for Murphy, I am contacting the murphy campaign to request ballot. It is a more telling sign for voter intention due to whom the voter contacted for the ballot. With more tnan 800 ballot advantage for the GOP, as long as the other 900 falls close into the election day breakdown.Tedisco shoul win.

Bill Sjem of NY 2:03PM April 02, 2009

As a US citizen residing abroad, I'm entitled to vote in federal elections, but not in state or local elections. I believe military personnel and others who are out of the district temporarily - at college or whatever - can vote in all elections.
For what it's worth, I voted for Tedisco.

John of NY 12:24PM April 02, 2009