By Michael Barone, Thomas Jefferson Street blog
Barack Obama carried Fairfax County, Va., 60 percent to 39 percent . In a special election yesterday for chairman of the County Board of Supervisors to replace Gerald Connolly, who was elected to Congress in November, Democrat Sharon Bulova beat Republican Pat Herrity by only 51 percent to 49 percent. Turnout was 107,713, far below the 516,254 last November. Another example of how Democratic turnout seems to drop off more than Republican turnout in special elections.
Couple this with two findings from pollster Scott Rasmussen and you might conclude that Republicans' prospects are not as dismal as they seemed in the weeks after the November election. Finding one: Support for the stimulus package has fallen. Two weeks ago, 45 percent supported it and 34 percent were against. Now it's 37 percent for and 43 percent against. Finding two: The Democratic advantage on the generic ballot—which party's candidate for Congress will you vote for?—has fallen to 4 percent.