George W. Bush Looks Back at His Presidency

December 19, 2008 RSS Feed Print

By Michael Barone, Thomas Jefferson Street blog

I was there yesterday morning when George W. Bush appeared before an American Enterprise Institute audience at the Mayflower Hotel. Here is the video and here is the transcript. It was not the usual format. Bush and AEI's outgoing president, Chris DeMuth, were seated on the dais and spoke extemporaneously. Bush delivered some remarks, then DeMuth asked him questions; altogether, the program lasted for a little more than an hour.

One question DeMuth asked struck a chord with me, a question about Eliot Cohen's book Supreme Command. Cohen argues that civilian commanders in chief have to engage directly and even abrasively with their military commanders, to challenge and often to overrule them, in order to produce an effective strategy in war. He cites the examples of Abraham Lincoln, Georges Clemenceau, Winston Churchill, and David Ben-Gurion. I thought Cohen's ideas were important and should be brought to the attention of the Bush White House. I wrote a review of the book for the Weekly Standard, and its editors made sure that multiple copies were sent to the White House. Word came out later that Bush had read the book. His initial response to DeMuth suggested that the book made little impression, although his further words suggested to me that he recalled the book and its argument but didn't want to answer the question directly. Instead, he launched into a riff I've heard before in meetings with journalists where I've been present.

Bush has been criticized often since military operations began in Iraq in March 2003 for not following his military leaders' advice. He and former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have insisted that they did follow the advice of the commanders in the chain of command—John Abizaid of Central Command and the various commanders in Iraq—and that those commanders did not recommended any increase in troop numbers beyond what the president ultimately ordered. Abizaid and Gen. George Casey, who was in command in Iraq in 2005-06, believed in a "light footprint" approach, with U.S. troops stationed in well-fortified positions and turning over responsibility to Iraqi troops as soon as possible. Only after the November 2006 elections did Bush seek a different approach and, after two months of deliberation, order the surge strategy of Gen. David Petraeus, against the advice of other military leaders. In retrospect, this course was correct, and my question for Bush at this meeting, if I had been allowed to ask one, would have been: How much earlier could we have adopted the surge strategy? The answer depends, I suppose, on how many counterfactuals you want to put in place, but I think it is an interesting one to ponder.

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The previous comment showing the iumportance of the surge coming at a time when the Iraqis had experienced the violence of Al Queda and Sadr shows deep wisdom. In chess somethings have to happen before others there is a sequence. Bush was constantly looking for the way to win and took advantage when that oppertunity appeared. Many others for what appear weak reasons, given what was at stake, were willing to fail and leave Iraq in chaos. More credit to Bush for his focus on victory.

Another thing almost never mentioned, is the stablizing presence of Grand Ayatollah Sistani. He has strongly supported the new democratic government of Iraq against both Al Qaeda and the Iran backed forces of Sadr. This has been crutial as these extremists have been suppressed. Sistani's acceptance of the American approach and birth of democracy must have partly deppended on seeing what the Americans were actually doing verses all the hype. This included the disbanding of Sadam's Sunni army and the controlled response to Sadr's provocations. The behind the sceens support of Sistani may be one of the most under-reported aspects of the new stability in Iraq.

Rob of CA 6:48AM December 28, 2008

The previous comment showing the iumportance of the surge coming at a time when the Iraqis had experienced the violence of Al Queda and Sadr shows deep wisdom. In chess somethings have to happen before others there is a sequence. Bush was constantly looking for the way to win and took advantage when that oppertunity appeared. Many others for what appear weak reasons, given what was at stake, were willing to fail and leave Iraq in chaos. More credit to Bush for his focus on victory.

Another thing almost never mentioned, is the stablizing presence of Grand Ayatollah Sistani. He has strongly supported the new democratic government of Iraq against both Al Qaeda and the Iran backed forces of Sadr. This has been crutial as these extremists have been suppressed. Sistani's acceptance of the American approach and birth of democracy must have partly deppended on seeing what the Americans were actually doing verses all the hype. This included the disbanding of Sadam's Sunni army and the controlled response to Sadr's provocations. The behind the sceens support of Sistani may be one of the most under-reported aspects of the new stability in Iraq.

Rob of CA 6:45AM December 28, 2008

Recovering addicts usually have to hit bottom first and then have just enough survival instinct left to pull their acts together and come out of their pits of despair.

This is not uncommon for other problems besides addiction. I remember trying to bully my mother into quitting smoking. She finally did, after the heart attack and quadruple bypass when none of the bypasses took and her heart managed to find its own way to stay alive. She had to hit bottom before she'd listen to good sense.

I suspect the people of Iraq, handed the "surge" right from the start before they had time to become intimate with the excesses of Al Qaeda and Hezbollah (er Iranian sponsored "insurgents") before they could be induced to stand on their own feet under the cover we could provide with the surge. They now know how bad it can really get. Saddam was evil incarnate. But even his excesses paled to those of Al Qaeda. Hezbollah excesses were not so severe. Note the difference in success of the surge in the former Sunni dominated areas compared to the Shi'ite dominated areas as a further demonstration of this thesis.

I don't think the surge, applied 2 years earlier, 1 year earlier, or even a few months earlier would have worked. I think 43 accidentally hit the sweet spot for timing the surge within two months either way from the Iraqi standpoint.

From the US standpoint he might have done well changing strategies sooner. But with the ravening clowns at MoveOn dot Org and others salivating like rabid dogs over the prospect of a forced Bush defeat at any expense to our nation I rather doubt he should have done it at an earlier time.

{^_^} Joanne

JD of CA 1:23AM December 20, 2008

Michael Barone

Michael Barone

U.S. News Weekly

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Michael Barone is a senior writer for U.S.News & World Report and principal coauthor of The Almanac of American Politics. He has written for many publications—including the Economist and the New York Times.

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