Michael Barone

Behind the Polls—Registered Voters Vs. Likely Voters

August 14, 2008 RSS Feed Print

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Charles Franklin, of the University of Wisconsin, has a nice chart on pollster.com on registered voters and likely voters. It presents trend estimates of the Obama/McCain margin among all polls, adults, likely voters, and registered voters. By comparing the trend lines of likely voters and registered voters, we can track the balance of enthusiasm, about which I wrote recently. The trend lines suggest that, contrary to my guess, McCain did distinctly better with LVs than RVs from February through May, that Obama did better in June, and that McCain has been doing better since mid-July. Obama does better among all adults than among RVs from January until about the time the Reverend Wright tapes surfaced March 13, but since he clinched the nomination June 3, he has done about equally well among all adults and RVs. What all this suggests to me is that the Obama campaign's organizational efforts are definitely worthwhile, while such efforts matter less to McCain, whose supporters seem more likely to vote.

Tags:: 2008 presidential election,; voters,; polls

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HairyMan of WV 8:02PM November 11, 2008

I would like to see some analysis on the so-called "Bradley effect" during this campaign. Did African-American voters come out in the Democratic Primaries as Likely Voters or the Registered Voter? Didn't they come out in such large numbers that they overwhelmed the primaries? Shouldn't this be a factor when we discuss the RV / LV numbers? Will the Bradley effect continue or will it reverse to the new "Chavez Effect"?
I imagine that come November 4th, we will be talking about the "Obama Effect," or more correctly the "Chavez Blvd" effect as it is known in Dallas Texas. (see "Dallas leaders opened Pandora's box with Industrial Boulevard name survey" at the Dallas Morning News website.) In this situation, the Dallas city officials had a local referendum to rename "Industrial Blvd." Democracy can be fun. The Latino voters saw an opportunity to rename an important road after the Latino civil rights leader, Cesar Chavez. They won convincingly in the poll. Story over? No, it is still going on. And I might add, it is very interesting to watch.
For our purposes, the "Chavez Effect" should be defined when the normal rules about RV and LV get thrown out the window because of race. Greater numbers of Latino voters showed up in Dallas for the election than expected. They only came out to vote, when their desired outcome seemed possible. (after all, who wants to vote for a losing cause?)
McCain and the country can probably expect the same sort of LV/RV outcome in the general election. And yes, I support that sort of outcome! After all, if you win the election by voting, and the other side loses by not voting, how could anyone complain?
Unfortunately, because of race relations in America today, I do not expect to hear anything about this until November 5th.

D Braswell of TX 12:53PM August 19, 2008

Behind the Polls—Registered Voters Vs. Likely Voters

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