Demographic Trends Could Make It Harder for Obama and Democrats

Certainly people are leaving the Mid West (centered on Illinois) and the North East in droves for greener pastures to the South and Mountain West. The number one reason for this trend is economic rather then idealistic. People leave New York because taxes are too high, specifically corporate taxes. Companies are moving down south to take advantage of tax breaks (a great example is my father’s firm leave Buffalo New York for Charleston South Carolina) and frankly people are following the job market.

The bottom line is that people move with their own political ideology and will undoubtedly change the political landscape of their destination, but, the political landscape of their destination (read the South or Mountain West) effects them as well (that is to say a more conservative or libertarian culture). These states have a history of small government and keeping out of people’s pocket books and lives, and while people may leave blue areas, entering areas that are redder may cause a subtle political shift for them as well the state.

It is not hard to understand why this would occur. A solidly union man from New York, leaving the state due to a high cost of living and bloated bureaucracy (it take takes 3 years before a social security claim is even heard before a court due to red tape and backlogs) looks with envy at a state with no or little state income tax and an anemic state bureaucracy. Certainly the relative success of these small government Southern and Mountain West States have an appeal, both economically and to a lesser degree ideologically to a North Easterner or Mid Westerner living in a state with high taxes, no jobs, and a corrupt and dysfunctional Bureaucracy.

The major takeaway is that states like Texas, Utah, and South Carolina are most likely to stay solidly GOP for sometime, while states like California, New York, Mass, and Illinois will stay in the Blue column. Most of the other states slated to gain or lose are either "swing states" or at least purple enough that counting them a guarantee for one party or the other for the next decade or two may be a bit much. The bottom line is a more modest GOP gain (which can easily be squandered if the party doesn’t adapt to a changing political landscape).

Nathan Gontarz of NY 12:57PM August 04, 2008