Home > Opinion > Michael Barone > A New Electoral Map: In the General Election, McCain Leads in Electoral Votes Against Both Clinton and Obama

A New Electoral Map: In the General Election, McCain Leads in Electoral Votes Against Both Clinton and Obama

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It has been interesting to note during the Primaries this year that the Democratic turnout has exceeded the Republican turnout approximately 2 to 1.

Mark (Dubai) 11:16PM May 31, 2008

As an unbiased "on looker", but a very interested follower of the USA election, I find most of the comments here incredibly biased towards what party they have affiliation to.
Comments like refeering to mccain as "an old fart" and cliams that "Kermit the frog would win for the democrats" shows ignorance and stupidity.
The bottom Line is if mccain unites the Republicans (gets the "chrsitain" (I use that word loosley when refeering to the "religous right") right to voted for him he will win.
End of story. If he doesn't then Obama will win.
Everything else is irrelevant. Will the right come out to vote or stay at home like they did with Clinton?
Personaly I think McCain is the WRONG choice. The religous right have hijacked a once great party. Big Arnie the Governor is one of the few TRUE Republicans left.
The Republican party was formed on anti slavery and freedom for the individual. It is not that now.
However the Democrats are lost in the 1950's and what to return to Protectionism and isolationisim.
The best thing the USA can do is stop ALL subsidies and tarriffs

Mark (from Austrlia) 9:50PM May 31, 2008

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The most anticapted Vice Presidential poll in United States history has just been released to the public.
All three Networks are scrambling to catch on to it. Have you hear about it yet?
Wondering what it is???
The counter read 100,884 views... think you better take a look? hmmmmm ok, just a real quick look. Cast your vote before the polls close, let your voice be heard!
http://www.freewebs.com/huckapedia
or
freewebs#com/huckapedia
Type the above web address into your web browser and replace the # character with a . (period)
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Giant Robot of OH 8:15PM May 31, 2008

Its all about getting the votes in the middle. There's a whole raft of folks who will vote only for the Dem, and another raft that will vote only for the Rep. Some of these rafts are very densely concentrated. A hugely partisan response in a politically unbalanced state produces little or no electoral effect. The decision makers are in the middle (of the political spectrum and the national geography). I see two things that will determine the outcome of this campaign. One is the incredulity with which Obama supporters receive the news that it is possible for the Republican to win; the other is the possibililty that the loud, uninhibited and frequently offensive expression of their support (e.g. Fr. Pfleger and the members of Obama's church) will convince calmer people not to vote for him. Change is one thing - self-righteous oligarchy is something else entirely. So the votes of millions of inflamed Democrat supporters may be more than offset by the votes of thousands of tentative Republican supporters. It could be 2000 all over again, but without the hanging chads. Obama could take the popular vote by millions, and lose in the Electoral College.

Patrick F Brennan of MI 4:13PM May 31, 2008

I believe that after 7 years of lies, war and death that the Democrats can and will win the general election. McCain is an old fart who will have to have an oxygen tank sitting in the oval office. On the other hand Obama is youthful and knows exactly what this country needs: CHANGE!!!! In responce to the nutcase who was ranting about how McCain is moderate, do you call voting NO 9/10 times against abortion rights being moderate? It seems to me McCain is just another Republican who is on the payroll of Washington Lobbyists and will bring Bush his third term in office. NO MORE LIES!!! NO MORE WAR!!! ELECT OBAMA in 2008!!!

Greg of PA 10:57AM May 31, 2008

Mr. Barone, in the McCain-Clinton figures, I believe the Bush Margin % should be exactly that of the McCain-Obama data.
So I believe the Bush Margin % should be -80 for DC in both data sets and -20 for VT in both data sets.
I loved reading this analysis as usual.
" If you find that offensive, please just mentally reverse the pluses or minuses."
I found that quite amusing!

Doug F. of MD 10:57PM May 30, 2008

What is forgotten in all this is two things, (1) none of these polls is about the right time and the right circumstances to have any material meaning in the general and (2) in the general Hillary is not in the race to confuse the polling against McCain. Let's be straight - these polls are irrelevant to the general. Your whole analysis is a complete waste of time. While McCain does have a chance to win in November, he has the odds very much stacked against him. He stands for the past, Obama for the future and change. People want change, they don't want the past.

Paul Stewart of 9:42PM May 30, 2008

I think you'l find that Obama's ability to mobilise previously non voting citizens will get him over the line against McCain - at least you can say then that the process is even more democratic than it has been previously. There are quite a lot of other confounding matters - as they say a week is a long time in politics. There is no anticipation of the effect of Vice Presidential choices, or of changes in the mood of the nation in the short term towards topics such as Iraq or the economy. Each candidate has the opportunity to make a telling impact on the final election result when responding to issues that arise during the election period. The more stained the existing Republican administration looks, the more the mood for change...

Mark of GA 7:43PM May 30, 2008

if trade is the vein then why are democrats blocking free trade agreements?

jr of dc of DC 6:51PM May 30, 2008

Kermit the Frog can run for President as a Democrat and win the White House in November. This past eight years have been very disappointing for Americans. We have watch the Republicans sell out and misgovern. Was it GW fault? I don't think so. However, GW just like Hillary surrounded themselves with people who were limited in their involvement with the rest of the country, and limited in the vision for what the American President can do. Many did George Bush a disservice in the name of party and idealistic loyalty. McCain maybe called a Maverick, but he is more like John Kerry, because you don't know exactly what he stands for and there is nothing concrete about his candidacy. For example, he said he was a true liberal while addressing a conservative group. On his last visit to Iraq, he didn't know anything about the factions fighting for power. The world has turned its back on GW and anything to do with him. So, since trade is the vein, that carries our economic life blood, Obama's popularity abroad will help us economically. Clinton is an awsome candidate, Michael Vick's pitbulls have nothing on her when it comes to figthing for the American worker. However, her missteps on her way to the White House, along with the "shady" gas tax, and bullet while flying over Bosnia, brings back the Clinton fatigue of scandals and character issues.

willie in Kansas of KS 5:58PM May 30, 2008