A New Electoral Map: In the General Election, McCain Leads in Electoral Votes Against Both Clinton and Obama

I'm very sorry about the rudeness on this forum from Democrats. I found the author's Almanac of American Politics a bit pricey (I would have really liked hard covers for the $50 I paid for it at Amazon), but it looked as close to unbiased as you can get on such a contentious subject.

It seems clear to me that if you run the numbers, there is a distinct Republican advantage in this general election. It's almost impossible to win the General without two of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. I expect Florida to stay Republican (at least with Obama as the nominee) and that means both Pennsylvania and Ohio have to be won.

I live in Pennsylvania. Quite honestly I loathe the place - it is God, Guns and Guts, none of which I particularly care for. So yes, Obama was right. Unsurprisingly I would rather live in the $26 million California mansion the now-notorious words were spoken in than anywhere in hardscrabble Pennsylvania. But I can still empathise with the Pennsylvania voter whose feelings have been hurt and the lamentably few joys of his life - the aforementioned guns, guts and God - scorned.

So I know that if I were a God, Guns and Guts Pennsylvanian I would have an extremely hard time pulling the lever or pressing the touch screen buttons for Obama. And since that is so, I expect him to very narrowly lose Pennsylvania or Ohio, and possibly even both.

If you lose Pennsylvania or Ohio - never mind both - you are well on your way to losing the general election.

So there you are. There are sound statistical reasons why you do not want to anger Pennsylvania or Ohio voters and Obama's managed to do it.

And yes, there is one more thing.

We're starting to win the Iraq war. And in winning the Iraq war we have Al Queda on the run. President Bush's strategy is starting to look, well, brilliant. He invaded Iraq, got rid of the tyrant Saddam, and lured Al Queda away from the USA and into his trap. In the end, Iraq will be a free country, aligned as our firm ally in the Middle East (just as Kuwait is already), Al Queda will be one for the history books, and we move forward.

Amazing.

And Obama is stuck declaring defeat and a wasted effort. By November it's going to be very obvious that we have neither defeat nor a wasted effort on our hands.

I believed this a year ago, in the depth of the war hysteria, and I reiterate it today: McCain will be victorious, partially because of his support of the Iraq war effort. It will shock the Democratic Party down to the core.

So in conclusion, we have very bad delegate math for Obama, and the probability of a won Iraq war to help McCain.

Seems to me it's McCain's to lose.

David H Dennis of PA 6:51PM June 03, 2008

As you may have noticed I live in WV. In fact, I live in the ONLY Republican county out of 55 in the state. I think it has been a HUGE misnomer to label our state (and several others for that matter) as a bunch of racists because we have overwhelmingly rejected Obama.

The problem is that most of the citizens in our state, believe politicians are politicians. Acknowledge what you are and we'll judge you based on how you present yourself.

Why will Obama not carry our state? Because no one believes what has been coming out of his mouth. So many people were supportive of him and his change message when he announced he was running for president. The people in this state are really hurting in so many ways. The choice between medicine, Dr. visits, gas for work, and food has become a common household topic. This doesn't even include routine vehicular maintenance, second jobs where you can find one which really only net about an extra $20 a day (for 8 hours of work) once you factor in child care and the transportation factors. Most citizens in our state must drive an avg of 15 one way to work. We liked his message.

Obama once had a solid fan base here - even from Caucasian Republicans. Go figure. My mother never voted for a single Democrat in her life, but she adored Barack Obama. Even they have had enough of the Bushes...

However, as time passed, people learned of his associations with questionable people and how he really thought about their time, lives and beliefs. THEN his wife had the AUDACITY to be fortunate enough to even attend Princeton (let alone her Law Degree) and continue by saying that she is just now proud of her country for the first time. I can name soooo many people who would love to go to college, they don't hope for Princeton - a community college would suffice. But these people are working two jobs at various hours just to pay their bills. WV'ns turned on them in large numbers. They are beyond unhappy. They aren't going to change their minds. If even half of the Obama supporters in early voting states feel the same way he is in real trouble. It is an issue about character. WV'ns feel that Clinton, McCain, Rockefeller, Byrd, Manchin are politicians. They'll say whatever it takes to get elected. They don't claim they are something they are not. While most of us make fun of them, we respect them for what they are and admit to being. Barack Obama, on the other hand purports to being so much more than what his actions indicate he really is and believes.

His actions in the recent week haven't been enough, because it only reinforces what people in this state have already concluded. Just another politician who will say and do anything to get elected - only he won't admit it!!!

Stephi B. of WV 8:39AM June 03, 2008

You, sir, are a horrible writer, dismal researcher, and a failed fact-checker.

I know you are stating an opinion but you should have more respect for yourself than to just skim over the laughable research of some junior researcher stuck in a cubicle.

You have absolutely NO credibility with ANY sort of overseas conflict or discussion, you have little credibility with issues concerning US citizens b/c you are an elitist with little factual knowledge, AND you are just a party-line opinion writer that will go to great lengths to spin ANY story into something positive for the Republican party...

You, sir, are a disgrace and you should go home and tell your children who and what their father really is....

Me of KS 12:51PM June 02, 2008

Wow, loved the comments from the tolerant and intelligent democrats. Particularly thought provoking when they ask what kind of dope Michael smokes, or make pronouncements the democrat will take 70% of the vote. Nothing like confidence with absolutely no data cited to back it up. Oh, and the McAint was just hilarious, you should be on TV (preferably MSNBC). It was almost as funny as Shrub Bush.

Dave of GA 12:01PM June 02, 2008