More Projections on the Popular Vote for Clinton and Obama

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WHOOPS! OBAMA WINS NORTH CAROLINA BY 230K+ VOTES
WHOOPS! YOU OVERESTIMATED HRC'S INDIANA WIN BY 15K VOTES
JUST STOP ALREADY

Barry of FL 2:22AM May 07, 2008

I think a lot of these numbers are surprisingly right. At this point elections are about demographics. I don't think there will be a lot of close states left. Majority white/rustbelt states will vote for Clinton and states with high black and/or college populations will vote for Obama.
I think Oregon and North Carolina will go bigger for Obama.
I think Indiana will return a surprisingly large margin for Clinton (+9 or 10).

J.T. of DC 2:02AM April 29, 2008

One thing the internet has proven- both the ideological extremes have more then their fair share of blooming idiots.
People- when you can produce a resource like Barone's "Almanac of American Politics" every 2 years, then you can attack the man's capacity for non-partisan analysis.
But who needs analysis?
Obama Speaks !
We follow !

rcb of MO 4:16PM April 28, 2008

He is trying to present the best case for Hillary, not supporting her. Right now it looks like Obama has it wrapped up unless these things happen. Him saying that this is what the vote totals will be if these votes are counted or those are not is not him "condoning" the counting of the votes. He said over and over that these numbers are optimistic from Hillary's point of view.
Also I'm pretty sure Mr. Barone is a conservative and not a Hillary or Obama supporter.

Brandon of OK 2:37PM April 28, 2008

Mr. Barone,
I believe it is not quite right to say we have no precedent for Puerto Rico. I understand that there has never been a disputed primary, which is one reason I would expect turnout to be on the high side rather than the low side.
In 2004, in the election for a non-voting member of Congress, 2 million people voted. Given the opportunity to select the next President of the United States, I would reckon at least that many people will turn out again.

Sean of VA 2:19PM April 28, 2008

This is disgraceful bias. You shouldn' t be allowed to write anything that is so untruthful spin

sally of OK 11:34AM April 28, 2008

In your worst of all possible worlds - first Lady /victim =Dem Presidential candidate
!) Why should anyone ( except die-hard Hillary fans) ever count
a) Fl & Mich where everyone agreed not to campaign. They ( or some of them) voted anyhow knowinh their votes wouldnt count.
b) Many voters stayed home - thinking their vote wouldnt count
c) Eveyone knows Hillary for 15 + yrs ( incl 7/60 yrs of elected service). Unknown Obama had no chance to present himself. - couldnt compete w/well-known hillary
d) Michigan 3-2 win over Uncommited (anyone but Hillary)
How can Michael Barone condone counting these illegal votes. Perhaps because they favour Hillary ( US News/Zuckerman's choice - the hands that feed him).
The clintons have had their time in the sunlight let them shift either gracefully or bitterly screaming into the shade.
Think you can sell your fuzzy math - what contempt you have for the American peopl

die profundis of NY 8:45AM April 28, 2008

It is no wonder that you have worked so long at such a great magazine. You have done your research and it is powerful. Those who fear the truth run the risk of being cut down by it.
In the coming weeks this argument should become a part of Ms. Clinton's discussions with the press.

of 3:28PM April 27, 2008

Some of the comments here resemble those of the Ron Paul fanatics last fall. Mature study of politics takes place whether or not children posing as adults flood the comments with emotional stuff like this:
"So please, just give it a rest before you hurt your publications reputation too."
Wishing doesn't make it so and acting like a cult doesn't convince skeptics.

Mike K of CA 12:40PM April 27, 2008

Shame on you Mr. Barone. You obviously have no integrity in representing actual facts; and certainly show your own agenda in your writing and inflation of Hillary's own calculating calculations. You should get another job. You're lousy at presenting real factual information. Maybe you should just go work for the Hillary campaign instead. At least you would be at home with another liar.

David Patton of TX 8:48PM April 26, 2008