Can Clinton Win the Popular Vote?

Reader Comments
Back to blog

when the people figure out what Obama is about, it might be to late.
Wise up people.

Earl Baisden of CA 9:06PM May 14, 2008

BILL CLINTON IS SUPPORTING OBAMA IN THE CLOSET.
MORE THAN ONE THIRD OF UNPLEDGED SUPERDELEGATES ARE SUPPORTING OBAMA SILENTLY, SECRETLY.
Hillary LIE about the pregnant woman in Ohio and she got away with it.
She LIE about the sniper dodging the bullet in Bosnia trip.
LIE about the NAFTA when Bill got a million dollars from Colombians.
LIE about the LIE.
She LIE; innocent voters fall right into her trap machine.
VOTE ANYONE BUT NOT HILLARY.

Monica Lewinsky of AZ 4:47PM April 28, 2008

Since the popular vote competition is informal, each side will pick its own rules. Mrs. Clinton has said that MIchigan and Florida should count. Florida gives her 288 thousand and Michigan gives her a 90 thousand margin over Uncommitted, though she will point out that it gives her 328 thousand more people than voted for Obama, who wasn't on the ballot. That's 616 thousand from those two states,using Clinton-supporter math.
RealClearPolitics gave Obama a lead of 827 thousand before Pennsylvania. Subtract the 106 thousand that's just attributed to Obama from caucus states but are not actual votes, to get 721 thousand. Subtract Florida and Michigan to get 105 thousand. Now subtract Clinton's 205 thousand margin from Pennsylvania, and she's ahead nationally by 100,000 votes. She doesn't need Puerto Rico any more to claim victory.
I've posted this with additional comments at
http://rasmusen.org/t/2008/04/hilary-clinton-is-winning-popular-vote.html

Eric Rasmusen of IN 6:55AM April 23, 2008

I checked the SurveyUSA polls as well and I have no idea where he got the numbers either. I think he just made them up out of whole cloth. Sort of Tuzla-ish if you ask me.
I think your credibility is a bit of an issue here and you need to seriously address this because survey poll data is not opinion, this is actual real life data we on the web can validate very easily on our own.
And Mr. Barone, it just doesn't add up for you.
Also, Bloomberg came out with their own analysis today and they came to the result that "it would be like pitching a perfect game in baseball" for Hillary to win the popular vote. Their analysis says that she would need to start with a 25 point margin in PA, which is even greater than the point margin that you put her on. And it assumes that she draws even in places where she is expected to lose big like NC, OR and SD.
Mr. Barone, something that everyone should have learned during the last 8 years is that information itself is an objective reality, an objective truth. I would admonish you to try to live in this reality-based world with us.
By the way, SurveyUSA has a new poll out today in PA, Clinton is now at 50.

Steve of VA 10:36AM April 21, 2008

In addition to the comments above about not using the most recent information from Survey USA.
I can't actually find ANY polls from Survey USA in recent times with numbers near to what you suggest.
Could you please link where you found them, and when they are dated?

Andy 6:13AM April 21, 2008

I will agree that SurveyUSA has one of the best records of any pollster this election cycle. However, you are not using their most recent data. Why?
It is dumbfoundingly bizarre. I can understand say someone cherry picking one poll or another if there is a good reason. And there is a good reason to suggest that SurveyUSA is the most accurate. But I have not heard of cherry picking the date the poll was taken. That is a new one.
As has been noted, I believe a correction is in order here. Because this is incorrect and brings new meaning to the phrase, "lies, damn lies and statistics".

Billy of DC 4:13AM April 21, 2008

So even selectively quoting the greatest outliers polls and ignoring the most recent data, your predictions were still wrong. I assume a complete retraction would be too much to hope for when Hillary only wins by 8% rather than your 20%.

Diogenes of 3:39AM April 21, 2008

You are not using the right numbers for SurveyUSA, I don't know if it is intentional or not, but the latest poll numbers are all came well before you wrote this piece and they are all available at RealClearPolitics.
The SurveyUSA polls you cite for PA, NC and IN are all incorrect.
The latest poll they conducted for PA was on 4/12-14 has Clinton at 54.
The latest poll they conducted for NC was on 4/5-7 has Clinton at 39.
The latest poll they conducted for IN was on 4/11-13 has Clinton at 55.
You should really correct your numbers because these are very glaring errors. Just obviously factually wrong.

Steve of MD 1:55AM April 21, 2008

Sorry! I live in Illinois and have watched Obama rise through the ranks of politics. No one is mentioning the fact that he has never finished an elected term in office before running for a higher one. I see little experience in this man and have had to listen to him for years change his opinions on issues to whomever is writing the check for the night. I voted for him for Senator and probably would again, but I will not vote for him as President at this time. Barack, I think you need to dry off behind the ears and decide who you are.

RCZAR of IL 5:24PM April 19, 2008

I hope its McCain I really hope that we get another 4 years of GOP rule, and finally end the morally offensive right of abortion. Females shouldn't get knocked up if they cant face the consequences. ANYBODY BUT THOSE LIBERAL THUGS 08

Lester of KS 10:34PM April 18, 2008