Michael Barone

Open-Field Politics

March 13, 2008 RSS Feed Print

The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll out today nicely shows the ambivalence of voter opinion. On the one hand, respondents show a generic preference for a Democratic president over a Republican, 50 to 37 percent. But Barack Obama (47 to 44 percent) and Hillary Clinton (47 to 45 percent) both have leads over John McCain that are not statistically significant. Another way to look at it: McCain is running a little behind George W. Bush's 51 to 48 percent national performance in 2004.

But that may not be true everywhere. Yesterday, Scott Rasmussen released results of McCain-Obama and McCain-Clinton pairings in Pennsylvania. McCain's leads over Obama (44 to 43 percent) and Clinton (46 to 44 percent) are once again not statistically significant. But they suggest McCain is running a little behind George W. Bush's 48 to 51 percent loss in Pennsylvania in 2004. Interestingly, SurveyUSA shows more difference in McCain's performance against the two Democrats; it has McCain leading Obama 47 to 42 percent while trailing Clinton 47 to 46 percent. This sounds plausible, with Obama seeming likely to be a weaker candidate in gritty west and northeast Pennsylvania than Clinton.

The bottom line here is that I take these numbers as an indication that the general election contest will be very fluid this year, with both parties having a chance to win—and a chance to lose.

Tags:
voters,
presidential election 2008,
Barack Obama,
Hillary Clinton,
John McCain

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You meant to say, "But they suggest McCain is running a little ahead of" Bush's 2004 loss in Pennsylvania, "a little behind" that loss.

Rick Dykema of CA 1:49PM March 17, 2008

I personally think that once Americans look at the tax plans of the different candidates that the choice will become clearer. Taxes will go up and way up starting from just 32K a year on Obama's plan and Hillary is going to kill a small forest of trees with all of her targeted tax incentives. They both would eliminate all of the Bush tax cuts resulting in a massive tax increase. In a down economy the last thing that people want is the governments hand in their pockets. Look for McCain's message of preserving the current tax system to resonate alot better once the populace at large actually looks at what Clinton and Obama want to do.

Jason Enzweiler of KY 1:01AM March 14, 2008

DON'T BE DUPED!!!

Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Barack Obama in the DEMOCRATIC primaries, and caucuses. Because they feel he would be a weaker opponent against John McCain. And because they feel that a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket would be unbeatable. And also because with a Clinton and Obama ticket you are almost 100% certain to get quality, affordable universal health care very soon.

But first, all of you have to make certain that Hillary Clinton takes the democratic nomination and then the Whitehouse. NOW! is the time. THIS! is the moment you have all been working, and waiting for. You can do this America. “Carpe diem” (harvest the day).

I think Hillary Clinton see’s a beautiful world of plenty, and comfort for all. She is a woman, and a mother. And it’s time America. Do this for your-self, and your children’s future. You will have to work together on this and be aggressive, relentless, and creative. Americans face an even worse catastrophe ahead than the one you are living through now.

You see, the medical and insurance industry mostly support the republicans with the money they ripped off from you. And they don’t want you to have quality, affordable universal health care. They want to be able to continue to rip you off, and kill you and your children by continuing to deny you life saving medical care that you have already paid for. So they can continue to make more immoral profits for them-self.

Hillary Clinton has actually won by much larger margins than the vote totals showed. And lost by much smaller vote margins than the vote totals showed. Her delegate count is actually much higher than it shows. And higher than Obama’s. HILLARY CLINTON IS ALREADY THE TRUE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE!

As much as 30% of Obama's primary, and caucus votes are Republicans trying to choose the weakest democratic candidate for McCain to run against. These Republicans have been gaming the caucuses where it is easier to vote cheat. This is why Obama has not been able to win the BIG! states primaries. Even with Republican vote cheating help.

Hillary Clinton has been out manned, out gunned, and out spent 2 and 3 to 1. Yet Obama has only been able to manage a very tenuous, and questionable tie with Hillary Clinton.

If Obama is the democratic nominee for the national election in November he will be slaughtered. Because the Republican vote cheating help will suddenly evaporate. All of this vote fraud and republican manipulation has made Obama falsely look like a much stronger candidate than he really is. YOUNG PEOPLE. DON’T BE DUPED! Think about it. You have the most to lose.

The democratic party needs to fix this outrage. I suggest a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket now! Everyone needs to throw all your support to Hillary Clinton NOW! So you can end this outrage against YOU the voter, and against democracy.

I think Barack Obama has a once in a life time chance to make the ultimate historic gesture for unity, and change in America by accepting Hillary Clinton’s offer as running mate. Such an act now would for ever seal Barack Obama’s place at the top of the list of Americas all time great leaders, and unifiers for all of history. But the time to act is soon.

The democratic party, and the super-delegates have a decision to make. Are the democrats, and the democratic party going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee to fight for the American people. Or are the republicans going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee through vote fraud, and gaming the DEMOCRATIC party primaries, and caucuses.

Fortunately the Clinton’s have been able to hold on against this fraudulent outrage with those repeated dramatic comebacks of Hillary Clinton’s. Only the Clinton’s are that resourceful, and strong. Hillary Clinton is your NOMINEE. They are the best I have ever seen.

“This is not a game” (Hillary Clinton)

Sincerely

jacksmith...

jacksmith of TX 10:43PM March 13, 2008

Michael Barone

Michael Barone

U.S. News Weekly

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Michael Barone is a senior writer for U.S.News & World Report and principal coauthor of The Almanac of American Politics. He has written for many publications—including the Economist and the New York Times.

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