-
Big Wins for Obama and Huckabee
Tweet Share on Facebook February 11, 2008 Comment (27)Saturday was a big day for Barack Obama, as he won the Louisiana primary and the Nebraska and Washington caucuses. And it was a pretty big day for Mike Huckabee, who won the Louisiana primary and the Kansas caucuses, though he lost the Washington caucuses to John McCain.
But a look at the numbers shows that Obama's and Huckabee's successes were limited. Obama's 57-to-36 percent win in Louisiana looks pretty impressive. But remember that it comes in the state with the second-highest black percentage in 2000 (and probably still, despite the outmigration after Katrina). Louisiana's black proportion "alone or in combination with any other race" was 32.9 percent, compared with 29.5 percent in South Carolina and 29.2 percent in Georgia. This is a good omen for Obama's chances in Maryland, which has the largest black percentage of any state that was not in the Confederacy, and for the District of Columbia. It's less relevant for Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas, which have lower black percentages. And in Texas's case, there's a much higher Latino percentage. The results by parish show Obama rolling up big margins in black-majority parishes, notably Orleans, while Clinton scores well in only one suburban parish, Livingston, east of Baton Rouge, which has the lowest black percentage in the state.
-
Super Tuesday Postmortems
Tweet Share on Facebook February 8, 2008 Comment (4)This has been quite the busy season for me. After analyzing the election returns for Fox News on election night until 1 a.m., I wrote this piece for the Wall Street Journal and my Creators Syndicate column, as well as a blogpost on the potentially pivotal role Puerto Rico may play in deciding the Democratic nomination for president.
-
Puerto Rican Poll Power
Tweet Share on Facebook February 6, 2008 Comment (131)Updated on 2/13/08: Puerto Rico's Governor Anibal Acevedo-Vila has endorsed Barack Obama for president. This obviously reduces toward zero the chance that Puerto Rico will produce a unanimous delegation for Hillary Clinton. Other Puerto Rico politicians of Acevedo-Vila's Popular Democratic Party and the opposition New Progressive Party have been seen as leaning to Clinton; it will be interesting to see where they end up.
The following thought occurred to me while preparing for my stint on Fox News on Super Tuesday evening. The Democratic nomination may be determined by the delegation from Puerto Rico.
-
What to Look For in the Returns
Tweet Share on Facebook February 5, 2008 CommentHere is a continuation of my list of Super Tuesday states and what we should expect on election night.
(One correction: In yesterday's blog, I mistakenly listed John McCain as the favorite in Massachusetts, while of course I meant to say that Mitt Romney, the state's former governor, is ahead in the polls.)
New Jersey. John Zogby, whom many other pollsters don't trust, has Clinton and Obama tied; others show small Clinton leads. Obama is on New York and Philadelphia TV, hoping for an upset. McCain has a big lead in this winner-take-all state.
-
A Super Tuesday Guide
Tweet Share on Facebook February 4, 2008 CommentCorrected on 2/05/08: An earlier version of this blog posting incorrectly reported that John McCain was far ahead in the polls in Massachusetts. Mitt Romney, the state's former governor, is ahead in the polls.
We've never seen anything quite like this, with 22 states voting tomorrow, just 33 days after the Iowa caucuses and 28 days since the New Hampshire primary last month. There's a big and interesting difference between the national polls, showing Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama narrowing (or disappearing in the CNN poll, which shows Obama up 49 to 46 percent) and John McCain's lead over Mitt Romney widening (except in Rasmussen's four-day track, which has a tighter screen and therefore a lower proportion of self-identified independents).
