Michael Barone

It's Close as Can Be in Texas

February 26, 2008 RSS Feed Print

Via RealClearPolitics.com, here are the latest polls on Texas and Ohio:

In Texas, Rasmussen has Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama by a statistically insignificant 46 to 45 percent, a result similar to the Washington Post/ABC poll showing her ahead 48 to 47 percent. CNN headlines its result, with admirable statistical modesty, as a tie, but it's Obama 50 to 46 percent. This is the first Texas poll with an Obama lead.

In Ohio the picture is different. Rasmussen has Clinton ahead 48 to 40; Quinnipiac has her ahead 51 to 40; the Ohio poll shows her ahead 47 to 39. It looks like Clinton's not huge, but statistically significant, lead is holding up in Ohio.

The bottom line: These are not numbers that would keep Hillary Clinton in the race. A victory by a microscopic margin in Texas would not, as I argued yesterday, give her any significant delegate advantage, and perhaps none at all. Her Ohio numbers are holding up, but even they don't, as I argued yesterday, give her much of a delegate advantage. And while they suggest she might prevail in later contests in Pennsylvania and Indiana, they say nothing to suggest she could win in North Carolina, where she is now well behind in a state whose Democratic primary electorate is looking a lot like Virginia's.

On Clinton's side, one does have to admit that the most recent national polls show Obama's lead over Clinton declining. Maybe Obamania is starting to fade, or to pall on those who were once enchanted. But he's going to have to fall some further distance toward earth if Clinton is to have any realistic chance of winning the nomination after March 4.

Tags:: Texas,; presidential election 2008,; Barack Obama,; Hillary Clinton,; polls,; Ohio

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If Senator Hillary Clinton becomes president of the United States it will mean that we would have had a Bush followed by a Clinton , then another Bush followed by another Clinton as presidents. America is a very big country ,has America run out of the "gene pool" for potential presidents?

Tasha Hobbs 11:27PM March 01, 2008

To the person who wrote:
"Emotional rhetoric and the word 'unite' are not going to fix foreclosures or our healthcare system, and neither is Obama. "
Actually, I would beg to differ. The fundamental problems with our country (health care, social security, foreclosures, etc, etc) aren't going to be solved with 50 percent plus 1 of the vote. I think we learned that with the health care debacle during the 90s when the Clintons not only had the White House but also comfortable majorities in both houses of Congress.
For anything of great consequence to be done in this day and age, you need to assemble a broad coalition, which is to say the people need someone who can be a unifying force in this country. Is Obama that person? I don't know; decades of partisan rancor have so poisoned the body politic that I'm not sure anyone could. But, at least he's trying.
Clinton, on the other hand, has run a campaign based largely on the premise that she's the most ready to fight the opposition tooth and nail on day one. That's fine, except that, given a choice, I'd rather not fight the opposition; I would rather try to persuade and co-opt them to my side--or at least the reasonable members of them. I'm tired of the fear-mongering, the demonization of one's political enemies, the arbitrary distinction about who is "significant" and who isn't, and most of all, the endless finger pointing.
The Clintonites tell me this is how it is, how it's always been, and how it always will be. Maybe. Certainly, I've accepted that in all the past elections that I've participated in, but I see where it's gotten us.
Obama is relatively new to the national political scene, but he's smart, has shown a remarkable learning curve, has shown mastery of the ability to blunt cheap attacks, has managed the most impressive and effective campaign operation that I've seen in my lifetime, and substantively shares 90% or more of the policy positions of all the mainline Democratic contenders from Clinton to Biden to Edwards.
But, his approach is something different, "naive" as the Clintonites suggest. So I say, if Obama is indeed a "roll of the dice," then let them roll!

HT of CA 3:35PM February 29, 2008

obama and his drooling idiot followers are an abomination! he is the antichrist.... BEWARE BUYERS!

Fourthsign of TX 5:04AM February 29, 2008

It's Close as Can Be in Texas

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