Changing Political Winds in Britain

Conservatives have overtaken Labor in the latest polls.

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In my U.S. News column this week, I took a look at the sharp change in the political balance in Britain and its implications for the United States. As the week has progressed, it looks like the balance in Britain is changing even more.

The latest ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has a big (43 to 36 percent) lead for the Conservatives—a striking change from the balance over the summer in which Labor led by an average of 9 points.

If the popular vote split along these lines, Conservatives would lead Labor 319 to 301 in the House of Commons, with only two for Lib Dems—down from 62 at the present time (hence the forced resignation of Sir Menzies Campbell as lead of the Lib Dems). That would leave Conservatives just seven seats short of an absolute majority, which would mean they could, at least theoretically, govern with the support of the Northern Ireland Unionist parties.