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Giuliani on a Roll?
Tweet Share on Facebook October 30, 2007 CommentScott Rasmussen's poll reports a tightening of the Republican presidential race nationally, with Fred Thompson just 2 points behind Rudy Giuliani. But it should be noted that for several months Rasmussen showed Thompson ahead of Giuliani. Rasmussen's robopolls impose a much tighter screen on Republican primary voters, so his samples include fewer independent-leaning voters; you can see how this would help Thompson and hurt Giuliani. Whether it will reflect accurately the actual primary electorate in New Hampshire and other states is something we can't know yet. It may depend on how the Democratic race goes. If Hillary Clinton wins in the Iowa caucuses on January 3 and the New Hampshire primary that will (probably) be held on January 8, she could very well have clinched the Democratic nomination by January 9. That will leave the Republican contest the only game in town for independent-leaners. If, on the other hand, Barack Obama wins or does very well in Iowa and then scores again in New Hampshire, it could be a spirited two-way race for the Democratic nomination up at least to the February 5 contests—by which time most of the nation will have had a chance to vote. So presumably it's in the interests of Rudy Giuliani and John McCain—the Republican candidates who seem to have the most appeal to independent-leaners—for Hillary Clinton to wrap up the Democratic nomination early.
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Bobby Jindal Wins in Louisiana
Tweet Share on Facebook October 22, 2007 CommentBobby Jindal has been elected governor of Louisiana in the first round of voting with 54 percent of the vote. Here are the statewide election results, and here are the results by parish. This is the first major statewide election in Louisiana since Hurricane Katrina; neither of the state’s U.S. Senate seats was up in 2006. I’ve aggregated the results by metro New Orleans (as defined by the Census Bureau) and the rest of state, and compared them with the results of the 2003 runoff, which Jindal lost to Democrat Kathleen Blanco 52 to 48 percent.
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Lessons of a Near Upset in Massachusetts
Tweet Share on Facebook October 18, 2007 CommentHere are the election returns for Tuesday’s special election in the Fifth District of Massachusetts. Democrat Niki Tsongas beat Republican Jim Ogonowski 51 to 45 percent in a district in which John Kerry beat George W. Bush 57 to 41 percent. This probably counts as the “near upset” I suggested as a possibility in my U.S. News column for the week.
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Changing Political Winds in Britain
Tweet Share on Facebook October 16, 2007 CommentIn my U.S. News column this week, I took a look at the sharp change in the political balance in Britain and its implications for the United States. As the week has progressed, it looks like the balance in Britain is changing even more.
The latest ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has a big (43 to 36 percent) lead for the Conservatives—a striking change from the balance over the summer in which Labor led by an average of 9 points.
If the popular vote split along these lines, Conservatives would lead Labor 319 to 301 in the House of Commons, with only two for Lib Dems—down from 62 at the present time (hence the forced resignation of Sir Menzies Campbell as lead of the Lib Dems). That would leave Conservatives just seven seats short of an absolute majority, which would mean they could, at least theoretically, govern with the support of the Northern Ireland Unionist parties.
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A Two-Party Presidential Debate in Primary Season?
Tweet Share on Facebook October 16, 2007 CommentI had a column in Sunday’s New York Times calling for a primary-season two-party presidential debate. The column was commissioned by the Times, and I was eager to write it because I have long thought such debates were a good idea. The one historical example was an NBC News debate with six Democratic and six Republican candidates in December 1987. My recollection, reinforced by a reading of the transcript, was that Tom Brokaw did a superb job as moderator.
In Saturday’s Wall Street Journal (subscription required), I listed my “Five Best” books on “the shared heritage of America and Britain.”
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Schwarzenegger Leads on Iran Divestment
Tweet Share on Facebook October 16, 2007 CommentCalifornia Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a bill ordering CalPERS and CalSTRS, the state’s two giant pension funds, to divest stock in firms doing business in Iran. This is part of the divestment movement I wrote a column about last month—it’s bipartisan, in coastal states and the heartland, Florida and Missouri as well as California. It’s sparked by state politicians and is an interesting example of how public policy is being made around the country rather than just in Washington.
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A Turning Point in British Politics
Tweet Share on Facebook October 9, 2007 CommentBritish Prime Minister Gordon Brown decided last Saturday not to call for a general election this fall. Up until the Labor Party's annual conference in late September, polls had shown Brown's party far ahead of the Conservatives, led by David Cameron. It appeared that in a general election Labor would boost its current majority. But opinion seems to have turned around virtually overnight during the Conservative Party's annual conference that followed.
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Breaking the Code
Tweet Share on Facebook October 9, 2007 CommentRemember those Osama bin Laden tapes that were aired on September 7? Now, according to the Washington Post, it appears that the "premature disclosure tipped al Qaeda to a security breach and destroyed a years-long surveillance operation that the company has used to intercept and pass along secret messages, videos, and advance warnings of suicide bombings from the terrorist group's communications network." In the New York Sun, Eli Lake has more on how al Qaeda shut down its Internet communications system rapidly right after the leak. It appears that whoever leaked the tapes to ABC News and other outlets caused the United States to lose an exceedingly valuable intelligence source. And what was gained? A few days' advance notice of tapes al Qaeda would have put out openly on the Internet.
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Colleges and Universities
Tweet Share on Facebook October 9, 2007 CommentMy Creators Syndicate column this week is on our colleges and universities. The lead paragraph gives you an idea of where I'm coming from.
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A GOP Victory in Massachusetts?
Tweet Share on Facebook October 3, 2007 Comment (2)When Democratic Rep. Marty Meehan of the Fifth District of Massachusetts announced he was retiring this year to become president of a local college, no one expected that Republicans would have a serious chance in the special election. This was Massachusetts, after all: John Kerry carried the district 57 to 41 percent in November 2004, and no one thinks George W. Bush could get as much as 41 percent there if he were up for re-election this year. Yet with two weeks to go, Republican nominee Jim Ogonowski seems to be within striking distance of Democratic nominee Niki Tsongas, widow of the late Sen. Paul Tsongas, who was elected congressman from this district in 1974 and 1976. The last time a Republican won here was 1972, when Paul Cronin upset none other than John Kerry. As I have pointed out since the 1974 edition of the Almanac of American Politics, Kerry was one of only three Democrats who lost a House seat carried by George McGovern; the others lost to Republican incumbents in two other Massachusetts districts.
