Michael Barone

The Democrats' victory in the November 7 elections, the resignation the next day of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and the unveiling of the Iraq Study Group report December 6 all have led le tout Washington to suppose that we would be withdrawing soon from Iraq. And not illogically. But it's looking increasingly likely that George W. Bush will decide to increase our troop presence there. It's pretty clear that he has rejected the advice of James Baker and Lee Hamilton to negotiate with the leaders of Iran and Syria and to pressure Israel to give up the Golan Heights and allow Palestinians "the right of return" to Israel–the latter being a Palestinian demand that no American administration has ever backed. Instead, he seems to be looking more favorably on the proposals by military historian Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute and retired Army Gen. Jack Keane to create a surge of large numbers (PDF) of additional U.S. troops to secure Baghdad and Anbar province. Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard writes that Bush looks very favorably on the Kagan-Keane plan.

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