Is the civil war likely to restart?
No, even return of refugees would not restart the conflict.
How have the war and the surge resonated beyond Iraq?
For me, so much of what I've seen throughout the Muslim world is related: the increasing sectarianism, the increasing resonance of the al Qaeda message with disaffected Sunnis. In Afghanistan, you can't understand what the Americans are trying to do without understanding what they think happened in Iraq during the surge. But the insurgents brought their own lessons and tactics from Iraq to Afghanistan too.