Blog Buzz: Russia, Georgia, and Obama's New Ad

There are so many vested interests in the Caucasus, it is difficult to see the wood through the trees regarding the Russo-Georgian conflict there. However, most of it seems to relate to control of all important oil supplies, so no change there.

A Russian dissident was murdered in London, allegedly by the Russian secret service, so I could be very biased against Russia.I will however, try to give a balanced view on this issue. I have good Russian friends, who are decent, educated and honest people.

The two break-away provinces in Georgia have voted, yes voted, more than once ro cecede from Georgia. This is seldom reported on by the western media. The history of the Caucasus has always been complicated, as is the history of the Balkans. You cannot force people to live together and even autonomy doesnt always work; ask any Catalan in Spain. It is possible, not probable, that Scotland will cede from the Union one day but I doubt if the English would go to war should that occur. Differences may be racial, religious or political. If those differences cannot be reconciled then a "divorce" may be the only solution.

Russia has been very wrong in its over-reaction to the initial military offensive by Georgia but I ask myself why the president of Georgia sanctioned such a suicidal attack? He knew it would provoke such a reaction from Russia, which in turn would be followed up by President Bush backing "democratic Georgia". However, behind the scenes I would imagine the US administration is furious with that of Georgia.

Please ask yourself if US or British soldiers in peace keeping zones were killed, as Russians were killed in South Ossetia, I am 100% sure Bush and Brown would have ordered severe retaliation.

The west should now work hard to build-up close relationships with the Russian administration, to deal with their understandable paranoia about the expansion of NATO on Russia's doorstep and the placement of defensive missile systems in Poland and eastern Europe. To say that this is for use against rogue terrorist states is ridiculous. Nobody believes this argument, so one should understand why Russia doesn't either.

I am sure there is a lot of internal argument and discussion within the Russian administration, as to whether they should isolate or integrate themselves with the world as a whole. I am sure there are still old style miltaristic individuals in the administration who would wish to return to the old ways of the cold war. The US and Europe shouldn't provide such individuals with "free ammunition" and give them the upper hand.

I hope the US offers Russia an olive branch of high level talks in the near future, to diffuse the situation before it escalates who knows where. This is not a sign of weakness but rather leadership by the US to thrash out differences diplomatically and to listen to genuine concerns of the Russians and to prevent further dangerous Russian isolationism.

4:41PM August 15, 2008