Greece faces further obstacles in bailout deal

February 13, 2012 RSS Feed Print

—Greece's debt sustainability depends on whether enough private investors participate in a bond swap designed to slice some euro100 billion ($132 billion) off Greece's euro350 billion ($464 billion) debt pile. Athens wants banks and other investment funds to exchange their old Greek bonds for new ones with half the face value, lower interest rates and longer repayment deadlines. But the deal will only work if almost all private bond holders take part. If not enough of them sign up, Greece could still pass new legislation that could force holdouts to participate.

—Athens still needs to spell out how exactly it plans to cut an extra euro325 million in spending this year. The sum was included in the austerity package that passed through parliament, but Greece hasn't said where the money will come from. An EU official said Monday that much of the euro325 million could come from further cuts to Greece's defense budget.

—The other 16 countries that use the euro are still waiting for the leaders of Greece's two main political parties to commit in writing to implementing the new austerity measures even after elections expected for April. Both the Socialists and the center-right New Democracy party backed the package in the parliamentary vote, but New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras has said that he disagrees with some of the measures.

—National parliaments in Germany, Finland and the Netherlands will have to vote on the second bailout package. Since those countries are traditionally most critical of bailouts, the votes are unlikely to happen before there is clarity on whether the bailout deal will actually make Greece's debt sustainable again. Germany said its parliament will vote on Feb. 27.

Germany's insistence on taking more time to decide whether it is willing to send more bailout money to Greece means the final decision on the rescue loans will have to be split from the bond swap deal.

The swap offer for private investors has to be launched this week so that it can be completed ahead of March 20, when Greece has to redeem some euro14.5 billion in bonds.

The finance ministers from the other 16 countries that use the euro as their currency could give Greece the green light to make the swap offer to investors at their meeting Wednesday, which would give investors several weeks to decide whether to participate.

However, the finance ministers "will have to provide the private sector with some assurances on the second bailout in order for them (the private bondholders) to look at the deal and make a real judgment," said Capital Economics' May.

"Everything takes place or nothing takes place and that by definition makes it a more complicated and time consuming process," May warned. "Assuming a deal is put in place, it's likely to come right down to the wire."

Juergen Baetz in Berlin and Elena Becatoros in Athens contributed to this story.