Is Ukraine's Crimea the Next Flash Point With Russia?

Crimea – the second Ossetia?

Correctly or not the Russian management has decided, having “force Georgia to the world”, any more has no value. Whether there is South Ossetia and Abkhazia the separate states, whether will enter into structure of the Russian Federation, or remain with the uncertain status, also it is unimportant. The fact is the fact – the military conflict has led to loss of a part of the territory by Georgia. Also it is necessary to reflect, who can become the following victim of the similar scenario. Unlike a number of the European countries which won territories behind the seas (that has led to their further loss), Russia extended at the expense of absorption of the next territories. Such “internal colonization” not only has allowed mother country to supervise them, but also subsequently has provided preservation of considerable Russian influence after a parade of sovereignties – both in 1917-1918, and in 1990-1991. And claims on this influence only amplify recently. Including Ukraine.

Some of the Russian politicians repeatedly declared necessity of revision of the status of the Crimean peninsula. Considering, that in the Kremlin similar demarches are invariably perceived with favourable silence, it is necessary to expect, that on this line pressure upon Kiev will amplify only. It is not necessary to forget, that Crimea till 1954 was in structure of RSFSR, and for today remains for Russia the important strategic base. It concerns as military sphere – the base in Sevastopol provides the control of Black sea, and political – thanks to a manipulation with moods of the population of Crimea.

Russia renders essential moral and material support of activity of the Prorussian public and semimilitary organisations (for example, cossacks). Ostensibly at the initiative of the specified public organisations in Crimea the question of carrying out of a referendum on revision of the status of Crimea as making Ukraine is regularly brought up.

Throughout last two years reception process by the Ukrainian citizens of the Russian passports considerably became more active. It is necessary to remind, that the pretext of protection of own citizens living in Ossetia (they received the Russian citizenship in the same way, as well as inhabitants of Crimea) became the justification for war against Georgia.

Until recently hardly probable not a unique part of the population of Crimea, not captured by the Russian attention, were Crimean Tatars. However and this omission of the Kremlin is gradually corrected. And the rate becomes first of all on youth. Russia under own initiative has started to hold annual forums of the Tatar youth in Kazan which pass under the aegis of formation of national consciousness and preservation of cultural traditions of the people.

http://www.kyivpost.com/nation/30475

Makovecky of VA 5:17AM October 21, 2008