Giddy Republicans Foresee Bigger House Gains in 2010 Than in 1994

New Gallup Poll shows first GOP advantage in 2010 election, especially among independent voters.

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By Paul Bedard, Washington Whispers

It has been a long time coming, but a new Gallup Poll shows the first GOP advantage in the upcoming 2010 midterm elections, sparking some Republicans to talk takeover. The new poll has Republican candidates favored over Democrats on a generic ballot 48 percent to 44 percent. The situation for Democrats is especially bad among independents, a group President Obama won over a year ago.

Says Gallup: "Roughly a year before the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans seem well-positioned to win back some of their congressional losses in 2006 and 2008. Independents are increasingly coming to prefer the Republican candidate for Congress, and now favor the GOP by 22 points. Political conditions could still shift between now and Election Day to create a more favorable environment for Democratic candidates, but a Republican lead on the generic ballot among registered voters has been a sign of a strong Republican showing at the polls in the coming election."

While Democrats say that they are in a temporary lull, some Republicans are downright giddy and dreaming of a repeat of 1994 when they took control of the House (only to lose it about a decade later). Says one Republican strategist and House GOP adviser: "This is data which supports my theory that a mighty wave is taking shape for 2010. I believe this wave will strengthen over the next 11 months. It is now time to seriously contemplate the possibility that 2010 may be a wave as large [as] or larger than 1994."