Poll: Lowest Congressional Approval in Two Decades

While the 2010 midterms are still 14 months away, pollsters seem to agree that it's not a question of if things will be bad for the Democrats but how bad things will be for the Democrats. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com recently suggested a 20- to 50-seat loss in the House. Republican pollsters have tried to tamp down excitement but are still predicting a loss of about 26 seats for the Democrats. A new poll from the Pew Research Center shows just how unpopular Congress has become. In the poll, 37 percent of Americans expressed a favorable view of the legislative branch, one of the lowest approval ratings given to Congress in two decades. Pew points out that voters may take their frustrations out on the majority party. Democrats had held a double-digit advantage in respondents' perceptions of how they managed the federal government and reduced the budget deficit, but now Democrats and Republicans are scoring about even. And the two parties are running about evenly in terms of whether respondents would vote for a Democrat or a Republican candidate today.

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Americans are extremely displeased with Congress, and there are already some signs that this could take a toll on the Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections. Currently, 37% express a favorable opinion of Congress, while 52% hold an unfavorable view. Positive opinions of Congress have declined by 13 points since April and are now at one of their lowest points in more than two decades of Pew Research Center surveys.

At the same time, voters are about evenly divided when asked how they would vote if the election for Congress were being held today: 45% say they would vote for a Democratic candidate in their district or lean Democratic, while 44% say they would vote for a Republican or lean Republican. At about this point four years ago, Democrats led in the generic congressional ballot by 52% to 40% and went on to regain control of Congress the following November.

The new survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Aug. 20-27 in English and Spanish among 2,003 adults, finds that most of the shift in voting intentions since the 2006 election cycle has occurred among political independents. Independent voters backed Democrats by a wide margin in the previous midterm (11 points on the eve of the election), but currently say they support the GOP candidate in their district by 43% to 38%.

The survey, released today with a separate national poll conducted Aug. 27-30, also finds:

• The Democratic Party continues to hold substantial advantages over the GOP on nearly all issues and leadership traits. Yet since last year the Democrats' leads on most issues have narrowed, including the economy and taxes.

• Notably, the two parties now run about even on reducing the budget deficit and managing the federal government. In recent years, the Democrats held double-digit leads on both issues.

• Opinions about health care reform may well be contributing to public discontent with Congress. By a 46% to 39% margin, more Americans generally oppose than favor the health care proposals being considered in Congress, which is little changed from July.

• For all the public's reservations about health care reform, however, Barack Obama continues to enjoy the confidence of a majority of the public with regard to this issue. More say they have at least a fair amount of confidence in Obama on this issue (56%) than say that about either Democratic congressional leaders (45%) or Republican leaders (39%).

• The economy remains the most frequently mentioned national problem, but an increasing proportion of Americans cite health care. Currently, 50% cite the economy as the most important national problem, down from 80% in February. Mentions of health care have risen from just 3% then to 20% today.

For a direct link to the full report, go to http://people-press.org/report/539/congressional-favorability-at-24-year-low. The survey is for immediate release and is available on our website http://people-press.org/.