McIlroy has an average score of 68.1 in his last five tournaments, which dates to the Bridgestone Invitational where some swagger returned to his game. His confidence has never been higher. He showed up at Crooked Stick expecting to win the BMW Championship, and that's what he did.
Now he has to avoid falling into the trap of being overly confident, a nice problem to have.
As dominant as McIlroy has been over the last few months, the FedEx Cup title comes down to the Tour Championship. The points are reset to give all 30 players in the field a mathematical chance of winning, with the higher odds attached to the highest seeds.
Any of the top five seeds — McIlroy, Woods, Nick Watney, Phil Mickelson and Brandt Snedeker — only have to win the Tour Championship to claim the $10 million bonus. A year ago, Bill Haas was the No. 25 seed and won the FedEx Cup through a bizarre chain of events in which none of the top three seeds finisher higher than 20th in the Tour Championship.
Woods is the only two-time winner of the FedEx Cup, though this is his first time back at East Lake since 2009. He didn't qualify for the Tour Championship in 2010, and he didn't make any of the playoffs last year after missing a chunk of the season with leg injuries.
McIlroy is playing East Lake for the first time, a rugged test that puts a premium on fairways and greens. Lately, he's been doing just about everything right.
"The way I've played since Firestone, it obviously gives you a lot of confidence," McIlroy said. "But I think you have to guard against being overconfident, as well. You have to still go in and work hard. You've 30 players in this field, 30 of the best players in the world, and I'd be very naive to think that I'm just going to come in here and contend again and have a chance to win.
"I know I'm going to have to play very well," he said. "And hopefully, I can do that."
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