Virginia (13) — Long a GOP bastion, Obama carried Virginia in 2008 by turning out young and minority voters. An influx of under-35 crowd, especially from the Washington, D.C., area, has continued. But Republicans roared back in 2010, ending consecutive Democratic administrations in governorship by electing up-and-comer Bob McDonnell.
LEANING REPUBLICAN (32):
Arizona (11) — 2008 GOP nominee John McCain's single-digit victory in his home state, and Hispanic and young voter boom, give Obama hope that Arizona is trending as others in Southwest. But Romney won big in February's primary, helped by the support of GOP Gov. Jan Brewer, in state where Republicans and the tea party are in charge.
Indiana (11) — Obama broke 44-year GOP trend by winning Indiana, albeit by barely a single percentage point. Unemployment is still high and the tea party is a new factor, both working against Obama.
Missouri (10) — Democrats have contested Missouri in the past three elections, only to lose each time. Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill is in tough re-election bid, and Obama's approval has dipped below 40 percent.
SOLIDLY REPUBLICAN (159): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.