BAGHDAD—In a city where the possibility of sudden death is far greater than in most other places, the development earlier this month of a dramatic downturn in both civilian and military casualties came as very welcome news. Nationwide, the Iraqi government reported 827 civilian deaths in September, a still-painful toll but half the number in August and the lowest level in more than a year. U.S. military deaths totaled 66, the lowest monthly number since August 2006.
Now military analysts are delving into the whys—and whether the decline is likely to last. One factor has been the implementation of major aspects of the surge strategy, say military officials. In addition to more troops, one key step has been to establish joint security stations throughout Baghdad. Put into some of the toughest areas, the stations—where U.S. soldiers live round-the-clock—have boosted the confidence of residents, adds one senior military intelligence official. This has served as a catalyst for calls to local tip lines about weapons stashes and other information. "The amount of munitions and caches we're pulling up now is incredible," he says.
The security stations have had another side benefit: Soldiers no longer have to make frequent, perilous drives into and out of the neighborhoods along routes where roadside bombs are most prevalent.
Cease-fire. American soldiers, too, have profited greatly from a cease-fire ordered by Moqtada al-Sadr, who leads the Mahdi Army. The militia has been blamed for planting most of the explosively formed projectiles, the bombs that are particularly deadly because they can pierce humvee armor.
In the eastern part of Baghdad, Shiite residents have been frequent targets of car bombs. The U.S. military has been walling off large swaths of the city with 10-foot-tall concrete barriers, particularly around market areas where a single car bomb can kill hundreds—and has. "The residents did not like the barriers at all at first," says one U.S. soldier. But as market stalls have reopened, along with fewer deadly incidents, he notes, "we haven't heard any complaints lately."
Predictions are difficult and perilous. Though the Sunni terrorist group known as al Qaeda in Iraq "really is beaten down in Baghdad," according to a senior U.S. military official, fighting continues in Baghdad district strongholds where al Qaeda in Iraq is trying to keep open southern and western routes through which fighters and weapons travel into the city. And Sadr's cease-fire is set to expire in six months.
