Clinton and Obama Locked in Tight Race in Indiana

It's the kind of political hullabaloo the Hoosiers haven't seen up close in 40 years. In the days leading up to Indiana's primary on Tuesday, the presidential candidates have bombarded the state. They've dominated Indiana's airwaves, they've showed up at Indiana's gas stations gasping at the high prices, and they've sat on Indiana's picnic tables and listened to the Hoosiers' qualms.

The state hasn't held an important Democratic primary since Bobby Kennedy was running for the presidency in 1968, and it has been so reliably red in general elections that candidates seldom stop in. But this time around, Indiana is playing the role of political barometer. It is seen as one of the last states where Hillary Clinton's campaign can boast that the tide is turning in her direction or Barack Obama's campaign can claim that this nomination is all but wrapped up. Indiana has become not necessarily a must-win (neither campaign will go that far) but a should-win in order for either candidate to clinch the nomination.

Last week an Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll had Obama 3 points ahead of Clinton, but that was before the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy resurfaced. In a Rasmussen poll that came out Thursday (after Wright's inflammatory remarks and Obama's strong words denouncing the pastor), Clinton had pulled ahead of Obama by 5 points, and in a Zogby poll out Friday, the two candidates were tied. And in all of these polls, 9 percent or more have said that they are still undecided.

"I think people legitimately know that they are going to participate," says pollster Ann Selzer, whose company conducted the Indianapolis Star poll. "They're just still having an internal debate within themselves on who is the right candidate." In previous primaries, those waiting to decide until the last minute have generally favored Clinton, but Selzer says this time around it's too early to say. "I think at this point it's hard to tell who the undecideds are going to break for," she says.

The demographics allow for a clean split. While Indiana, similar to Pennsylvania, is considered part of the rust belt (which could be favorable to Clinton), it also nudges up against Illinois, the home state of Obama. Northwestern Indiana shares a media market with Chicago, which is one of Obama's strongholds.

There are some factors that differentiate Indiana from the primary in Pennsylvania, where Clinton pummeled Obama by 9 points in April. Indiana's population is slightly younger—which could help Obama, who has done well with younger Democrats,—but it's also slightly more rural and white, which could give Clinton a boost. "What seems to be the pattern is that she will do better downstate," says Edward Carmines, a professor of political science at Indiana University-Bloomington. "And he will do better in the western and northern part that borders Illinois." There are about equal pockets of support coming from different areas of Indiana.

Even the endorsements seem to be evenly divided. Clinton has been accompanied for months by former governor and Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and was endorsed Friday by the Indianapolis Star. Obama, on the other hand, recently picked up the endorsement of Rep. Baron Hill and also that of Hoosier DNC member Joe Andrew, who early on had endorsed Clinton but switched his allegiance to Obama on Thursday.

The big wild card could be that independents and Republicans are allowed to vote in Indiana's Democratic primary. "In Indiana you have an open primary, which really lets the flood gates open," says Selzer. In the Indianapolis Star poll, Democrats favored Obama and Clinton evenly, but both Republicans and independents favored Obama by 10 points. "It is really the independents and some crossover Republicans who are giving Obama a lead," says Selzer. "There is a dead tie among Democrats."

It'll all be speculation until Tuesday, when Hoosiers will be joined by voters in North Carolina to make the big presidential pick. North Carolina has long been considered Obama territory, though Clinton has recently trimmed his lead. In Indiana, it will take hefty voter turnout, and probably some help from independents and "Obamicans," for the Hoosier State to turn into Obama territory too.