By The Associated Press, Associated Press
Below is the full text of the statement that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi delivered at his press conference on Thursday.
"Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today's meeting of the Governing Council.
Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Owing to high energy prices and increases in indirect taxes in some euro area countries, inflation rates are likely to remain above 2 percent for the remainder of 2012. They are expected to fall below that level in the course of next year and to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2 percent over the medium term. Economic activity in the euro area is expected to remain weak, although it continues to be supported by our monetary policy stance and financial market confidence has visibly improved on the back of our decisions as regards Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs). At the same time, the necessary process of balance sheet adjustment in large parts of the financial and non-financial sectors as well as high uncertainty continue to weigh on the economic outlook. It is essential for governments to support confidence by forcefully implementing the necessary steps to reduce both fiscal and structural imbalances and to proceed with financial sector restructuring.
The Governing Council remains firmly committed to preserving the singleness of its monetary policy and to ensuring the proper transmission of the policy stance to the real economy throughout the euro area. As we said before, we are ready to undertake OMTs, which will help to avoid extreme scenarios, thereby clearly reducing concerns about the materialisation of destructive forces.
Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP contracted by 0.2 percent, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2012, following flat growth in the previous quarter. As regards the second half of 2012, the available indicators continue to signal weak activity. While industrial production data showed some resilience in July/August, most recent survey evidence for the economy as a whole, extending into the fourth quarter, does not signal improvements towards the end of the year.
Looking ahead to next year, the growth momentum is expected to remain weak. It continues to be supported by our standard and non-standard monetary policy measures, but the necessary process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors and an uneven global recovery will continue to dampen the pace of recovery. The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area remain on the downside.
Euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.5 percent in October 2012, according to Eurostat's flash estimate, compared with 2.6% in September and August. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates could remain at elevated levels, before declining to below 2 percent again in the course of next year. Over the policy-relevant horizon, in an environment of modest growth in the euro area and well-anchored long-term inflation expectations, underlying price pressures should remain moderate. Current levels of inflation should thus remain transitory. We will continue to monitor closely further developments in costs, wages and prices.
Risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be broadly balanced over the medium term. Upside risks pertain to further increases in indirect taxes owing to the need for fiscal consolidation. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area, in the event of a renewed intensification of financial market tensions, and its effects on the domestic components of inflation.
Turning to the monetary analysis, the underlying pace of monetary expansion continues to be subdued. In September the annual growth rate of M3 decreased to 2.7 percent, from 2.8 percent in August. Monthly outflows from M3 reflected to some extent the reversal of portfolio shifts into the most liquid components of M3. Accordingly, the annual rate of growth of M1 declined to 5.0 percent in September, from 5.2 percent in August. At the same time, we have observed a strengthening in the deposit base of banks in some stressed countries, amid improvements in investors' confidence in the euro area.
Reader Comments (