Many of Obama's New Economic Ideas Won't Pass

We handicap the odds that nine of his top priorities will actually happen.

By + More

President Barack Obama, like most of his predecessors, ticked off an exhaustive laundry list of new ideas in the first State of the Union address of his second term. Here's a cheat sheet summarizing Obama's most significant economic proposals, along with some handicapping about their future:

1. Targeted spending cuts to replace the "sequester": Obama is right that the current plan to cut federal spending by $110 billion per year is "harsh and arbitrary," since it targets most federal agencies equally with no effort to prioritize what's most important.

Odds it will happen: Slight. Congress could downsize, delay or even cancel the sequester, which is scheduled to kick in March 1. But coming up with an alternative set of targeted spending cuts would be a huge fight highlighting the most irreconcilable differences between Democrats and Republicans.

[PHOTOS: Obama's 2013 State of the Union Address]

2. Raising the minimum wage to $9 per hour: The minimum wage, now $7.25, has risen slightly slower than inflation since 1980 and was last raised in 2009. In addition to hiking it, Obama wants to index the minimum wage to inflation so it rises automatically in line with the cost of living.

Odds it will happen: Modest. The business lobby, which says a minimum wage hike will hurt profits and reduce employment, will fight this proposal aggressively. A smaller minimum wage hike is more likely, especially if Obama fights hard for it.

3. Immigration reform: Among other things, Obama wants to streamline the entry process for foreign entrepreneurs and highly skilled immigrants able to contribute to a growing U.S. economy.

Odds it will happen: Good. This is one of the few issues on which Democrats and Republicans seem to share a common goal (which includes wooing the Latino vote). Legislation could pass this year.

[READ: 20 Industries With Record Numbers of Jobs]

4. Refinancing aid for homeowners: Obama renewed his push for federal guarantees that would allow more homeowners to refinance their mortgages and lower their monthly payments.

Odds it will happen: Modest. Now that home prices have stopped falling in most areas, there's less chance such a program would cost the government money. Still, most programs to help homeowners have been a bust, and the housing market is now recovering on its own, anyway.

5. Tax reform: Obama called for lowering the corporate tax rate, closing loopholes and simplifying the convoluted tax code, which is an idea generally favored by both parties.

Odds it will happen: Modest. Though there's widespread agreement that tax reform is a must, there are so many issues to fight over that it could easily bog down amidst partisan mudslinging. Aggressive leadership by Obama would be crucial.

6. Fixing Medicare: Obama promised "modest reforms" meant to make this enormously expensive program more affordable, though he wasn't specific.

Odds it will happen: Modest. Medicare costs have to be cut sooner or later, otherwise they'll bankrupt the government. But Obama's interest in entitlement reform seems lukewarm at best, and it's probably only likely if Obama gets his way on tax reform and other big issues.

[READ: Why More Immigration Is Good for Business]

7. More clean energy investments: Obama wants new federal incentives to encourage the use of wind, solar and renewable energy, along with increased research into new energy technologies.

Odds it will happen: Slight. Obama might get a few new clean-energy measures if the price tag is low, but there's little enthusiasm in Washington for costly clean-energy subsidies that might end up as boondoggles. Plus, cheap natural gas reduces the urgency to develop fossil-fuel alternatives.

8. New infrastructure spending: Obama wants $50 billion to fix decaying bridges and other weak links in the nation's infrastructure.

Odds it will happen: Slight. Obama made a similar demand as part of the fiscal-cliff negotiations but dropped it. With an emphasis on cutting spending in Washington, there's little support for more stimulus programs.

9. Reinvigorating manufacturing: Obama's plan includes tax incentives to bring more work back to the United States, plus funding for 15 "manufacturing institutes" that would help train workers in the skills businesses need most.

Odds it will happen: Modest. Washington can play an effective role helping businesses and local governments work together to match job training to the skills companies need. It goes without saying that programs with the lowest price tag have the best chance of passing.

Rick Newman's latest book is Rebounders: How Winners Pivot From Setback To Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman.